The possibility of recession in the UK, the USA and Europe has attracted a great deal of media attention and in this podcast Andy Beharrell considers whether there is any real evidence of recession. The podcast considers the definition of recession, the causes of recession and the different approaches taken by governments to try to keep their economies out of recession. While the UK and Europe have adopted essentially rules-based policy approaches, the USA has taken a more interventionist and discretionary approach with a significant loosening of both monetary and fiscal policy.
Tag: recession
The financial crisis and economic downturn have started to impact on unemployment which, in the UK, has risen at the fastest rate for 17 years. A study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) has said that the downturn may add 20 million to the global unemployment total bringing the figure to around 210 million.
Unemployment rises at fastest rate in 17 years Times Online (15/10/08)
Smoke clears to reveal the monster of rising unemployment Guardian (19/10/08)
Unemployment total may be more than 2 million by Christmas Guardian (16/10/08)
Back to the future? No, thanks Guardian (15/10/08)
White collar workers next victims as unemployment accelerates Times Online (16/10/08)
World jobless ‘to add 20 million’ BBC News Online (20/10/08)
UK recession is here to stay, experts warn Telegraph (26/10/08)
Recession Britain: Just how bad is it … and will it get much worse? The Independent (25/10/08)
Questions
| 1. | Explain the likely impact of the economic downturn on the UK labour market. |
| 2. | Discuss the view that “Unemployment won’t be solved by labour market flexibility ……. “. |
| 3. | Assess policies that governments around the world can adopt to try to mitigate the likely impact of a 20 million rise in unemployment. |
US national debt has got so large that the national debt clock in Time Square has run out of zeroes and they have had to order a new one. UK national debt is also set to rise in the current financial crisis as government borrowing rose sharply in September. The impact of greater public spending and the part-nationalisation of the banks is all likely to lead to a rapid rise in public borrowing and therefore national debt, but is this sustainable for the UK economy?
How the bank crisis hits Britain’s public finances Guardian (14/10/08)
National debt clock runs out of zeroes – new larger clock ordered Guardian (9/10/08)
Banks’ bail-out: ‘The money’s being spent on buying bank shares, so it shouldn’t hit public borrowing’ Guardian (14/10/08) (podcast)
Rescue plan underlines likelihood of tax rises and spending cuts Guardian (9/10/08)
Darling must spend now Times Online (20/10/08)
Public borrowing hits record high Times Online (20/10/08)
Gordon Brown defends level of national debt Guardian (20/10/08)
UK borrowing hits a 60-year high BBC News Online (20/10/08)
Crisis ‘to double UK borrowing’ BBC News Online (22/9/08)
Deep pockets The Economist (9/10/08)
Questions
| 1. | Explain the relationship between the level of public borrowing and the national debt. |
| 2. | Examine the reasons why public spending has risen. |
| 3. | Discuss whether this increase in aggregate demand will be sufficient to prevent the UK economy falling into recession. |
The article linked below looks at the extent to which economic downturn and rising inequality are likely to affect crime levels in the UK. Traditionally the view has been that an economic downturn will raise crime, but is it necessarily the downturn that is causing the increased crime?
Consumed by crime Guardian (24/9/08)
Questions
| 1. | Explain why an economic downturn may lead to increased levels of crime. |
| 2. | Discuss the extent to which deregulation of markets may have exaggerated the relationship between crime and the level of economic growth. |
| 3. | Assess the view espoused in the article that “a culture obsessed with material goods” and “competitive individualism” have led to stronger link between crime and economic growth. |
Given the interdependence of the global economy, the economic slowdown in the West is likely to have worldwide knock-on effects. How serious will these effects be for the emerging economies of South East Asia? The following articles consider this question.
The decoupling debate The Economist (6/3/08)
Can Asia escape the effects of the downturn in the West? Times Online (17/3/08)
Just enough power to save themselves Times Online (25/3/08)
Questions
| 1. | Explain the term emerging economy. |
| 2. | Discuss the extent to which the economic performance of the emerging economies will help reduce the likelihood of recession in the UK. |
| 3. | Discuss the extent to which the economic performance of the emerging economies is likely to be affected by recession in the USA. |