Tag: monetary targets

In the current environment of low inflation and rising unemployment, the Federal Reserve Bank, the USA’s central bank, has amended its monetary targets. The new measures were announced by the Fed chair, Jay Powell, in a speech for the annual Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium (this year conducted online on August 27 and 28). The symposium was an opportunity for central bankers to reflect on their responses to the coronavirus pandemic and to consider what changes might need to be made to their monetary policy targets and instruments.

The Fed’s previous targets

Previously, like most other central banks, the Fed had a long-run inflation target of 2%. It did, however, also seek to ‘maximise employment’. In practice, this meant seeking to achieve a ‘normal’ rate of unemployment, which the Fed regards as ranging from 3.5 to 4.7% with a median value of 4.1%. The description of its objectives stated that:

In setting monetary policy, the Committee seeks to mitigate deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal and deviations of employment from the Committee’s assessments of its maximum level. These objectives are generally complementary. However, under circumstances in which the Committee judges that the objectives are not complementary, it follows a balanced approach in promoting them, taking into account the magnitude of the deviations and the potentially different time horizons over which employment and inflation are projected to return to levels judged consistent with its mandate.

The new targets

Under the new system, the Fed has softened its inflation target. It will still be 2% over the longer term, but it will be regarded as an average, rather than a firm target. The Fed will be willing to see inflation above 2% for longer than previously before raising interest rates if this is felt necessary for the economy to recover and to achieve its long-run potential economic growth rate. Fed chair, Jay Powell, in a speech on 27 August said:

Following periods when inflation has been running below 2%, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time.

Additionally, the Fed has increased its emphasis on employment. Instead of focusing on deviations from normal employment, the Fed will now focus on the shortfall of employment from its normal level and not be concerned if employment temporarily exceeds its normal level. As Powell said:

Going forward, employment can run at or above real-time estimates of its maximum level without causing concern, unless accompanied by signs of unwanted increases in inflation or the emergence of other risks that could impede the attainment of our goals

The Fed will also take account of the distribution of employment and pay more attention to achieving a strong labour market in low-income and disadvantaged communities. However, apart from the benefits to such communities from a generally strong labour market, it is not clear how the Fed could focus on disadvantaged communities through the instruments it has at its disposal – interest rate changes and quantitative easing.

Assessment

Modern monetary theorists (see blog MMT – a Magic Money Tree or Modern Monetary Theory?) will welcome the changes, arguing that they will allow more aggressive expansion and higher government borrowing at ultra-low interest rates.

The problem for the Fed is that it is attempting to achieve more aggressive goals without having any more than the two monetary instruments it currently has – lowering interest rates and increasing money supply through asset purchases (quantitative easing). Interest rates are already near rock bottom and further quantitative easing may continue to inflate asset prices (such as share and property prices) without sufficiently stimulating aggregate demand. Changing targets without changing the means of achieving them is likely to be unsuccessful.

It remains to be seen whether the Fed will move to funding government borrowing directly, which could allow for a huge stimulus through infrastructure spending, or whether it will merely stick to using asset purchases as a way for introducing new money into the system.

Articles

• In landmark shift, Fed rewrites approach to inflation, labor market

Reuters, Jonnelle Marte, Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider (27/8/20)

• 5 Key Takeaways From Powell’s Jackson Hole Fed Speech

Bloomberg, Mohamed A. El-Erian (28/8/20)

• Fed adopts new strategy to allow higher inflation and welcome strong labor markets

Market Watch, Greg Robb (27/8/20)

• Fed to tolerate higher inflation in policy shift

Financial Times, James Politi and Colby Smith (27/8/20)

• Fed inflation shift raises questions about past rate rises

Financial Times, James Politi and Colby Smith (28/8/20)

• Dollar slides as bond market signals rising inflation angst

Financial Times, Adam Samson and Colby Smith (28/8/20)

• Wall Street shares rise after Fed announces soft approach to inflation

The Guardian, Larry Elliott (27/8/20)

• How the Fed Is Bringing an Inflation Debate to a Boil

Bloomberg, Ben Holland, Enda Curran, Vivien Lou Chen and Kyoungwha Kim (27/8/20)

• The live now, pay later economy comes at a heavy cost for us all

The Guardian, Phillip Inman (29/8/20)

• The world’s central banks are starting to experiment. But what comes next?

The Guardian, Adam Tooze (9/9/20)

Speeches

• New Economic Challenges and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Review

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Jay Powell (27/8/20)

• The central bank balance sheet as a policy tool: past, present and future

Bank of England, Andrew Bailey (28/8/20)

Questions