It is something of a media sport in these recessionary times to find ‘economic scapegoats’. One minute the recession is the fault of the banks and their poor lending practices; the next minute it is the fault of the media themselves, who are constantly reporting doom and gloom; the next minute it is the fault of the politicians, who have failed to react quickly enough to the economic uncertainties; the list goes on! However, the one group that is rarely blamed is ‘us’ – the consumers. Given that the state of the economy is the outcome of our collective decisions, it could be said that we have no real right to complain, as our collective lack of confidence could be what has caused much of the current situation. As James Meek puts it in the article below:
What makes the situation peculiar is that the crisis that threatens us also seems to be us; we are simultaneously menaced by the wave, and exist as elements of the wave. After all, that is what an economic crisis is: the sum of all the actions of billions of people around the world, deciding whether to lend or hoard, borrow or save, sell or buy, move or stay, hire or fire, study or look for work, be pessimistic or optimistic.
To live in remarkable times Guardian (5/1/09)
Questions
- Explain how changes in consumer confidence can affect the level of aggregate demand.
- Examine the importance of consumer confidence in determining the length and depth of a recession.
- Discuss policies that the government can implement to try to boost consumer confidence.
- Analyse the impact on an economy of a prolonged period of poor consumer confidence.
The current financial crisis had led to Keynesian theory coming back into fashion. Governments all around the world have put in place a significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to try to mitigate the impact of the downturn. But is this really Keynesian policy at work? Keynes argued for permanent and tough controls on the financial sector to allow the government to pursue a policy of full employment. It would be difficult that current policies are therefore pure Keynesian policies, so is there an economic theory vacuum with market economics discredited, but Keynesian economics not really taking its place? The article below looks at how economic theory has changed in recent months and considers whether we need a ‘new’ Keynes.
Wanted: the Keynes for our times Guardian (22/12/08)
Questions
- Explain the difference between classical and Keynesian beliefs with respect to government intervention in the ecoomy.
- Analyse the extent to which the recent policy stimulus has been Keynesian in nature.
- Discuss the changes that have taken place in economic policy during 2008/9 in the context of economic theory.
In successive months the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (MPC) has cut Bank Rate from 4.5% down to 2% – the lowest level since November 1951. The dramatic changes show that the Bank is concerned that inflation and economic activity will fall sharply. Indeed the Governor has recognised that there is a possible danger of deflation (defined, in this context, as negative inflation: i.e. a fall in the price index, whether CPI or RPI). To the extent that these cuts in Bank Rate are passed on in interest rate cuts by banks and building socities, they will reduce the cost of borrowing. It is hoped that this, in turn, will result in a boost to aggregate demand – particularly in the run-up to Christmas.
Below is a selection of articles relating to the interest rate cuts, with many commentators wondering if the cuts will be enough and whether interest rates have much lower to go. For some background on interest rates, you may like to look at the History of Britain’s interest rate published by the Times Online. Martin Rowson’s cartoon in the Guardian clearly summarises the view that this may not be enough to revive an ailing British economy!
Bank enters uncharted territory BBC News Online (4/12/08)
Q&A: The Bank Rate cut and you BBC News Online (12/12/08)
Where will interest rates go now? BBC News Online (4/12/08)
Bank of England still has ammunition for the new year Guardian (4/12/08) Video
Farwell, convention Guardian (5/12/08)
No doubt that we’ve got further to go in this rate cutting Guardian (5/12/08) Podcast
Bank cuts rate by 1% to historic low Times Online (4/12/08)
Analysis: Shock and awe of rate cut Times Online (4/12/08)
Rates cut again as recession deepens Times Online (5/12/08)
Unconventional steps may slow the slide into global recession Times Online (7/12/08)
Bank cuts UK rates to 57-year low Times Online (4/12/08)
Questions
The global financial crisis has led to a significant number of countries going into recession. Recession is defined by economists as two successive quarters of negative economic growth. Banking collapses and a collapse in consumer confidence, and therefore expenditure, have reduced aggregate demand. This situation has been exacerbated as each country’s exports fall due to the slowdown in other countries. The combination of these and other factors has led to negative economic growth resulting in recession. We have linked below to a range of news articles looking at different countries that have fallen into recession in recent months.
Germany
German economy now in recession BBC News Online (13/11/08)
Germany tumbles into recession as exports dive Times Online (13/11/08)
Germany slides into recession Guardian (13/11/08)
Eurozone
Threat of worst postwar slump grows as major economies enter recession Times Online (14/11/08)
Eurozone officially in recession BBC News Online (14/11/08)
Eurozone tumbles into first-ever recession Times Online (14/11/08)
Spain
Spain has that shrinking feeling as economy heads south Times Online (20/11/08)
Economic clouds gather as Spain faces recession Times Online (6/12/08)
Japan
Japanese economy now in recession BBC News Online (17/11/08)
Global slowdown and resurgent yen finally drag Japan into recession Times Online (18/11/08)
Japan in sharpest plunge to recession since war Times Online (28/11/08)
Japan slides into recession as global slowdown hits exports Guardian (17/11/08)
Singapore
Singapore officially in recession BBC News Online (21/11/08)
Hong Kong
Hong Kong slides into recession BBC News Online (14/11/08)
Questions
- Choose one of the countries above and analyse the principal reasons why it went into recession.
- Discuss whether a fiscal policy or a monetary policy stimulus will be more effective at boosting aggregate demand in a country that is in recession.
- Assess policies that the governments of the countries above could use to minimise the impact of recession on the level of employment in their country.
Governments around the world have been reacting to the global financial crisis by cutting interest rates in the hope that an expansionary monetary policy will help prevent recession or perhaps minimise the length, depth and severity of recession. In the articles below, we look at interest rate cuts in some countries, but there are many others. Why not use Google news or an equivalent site to try to find some more examples?
Europe
ECB rate cut sets tone for worldwide attempt to spark stalled economies Times Online (5/12/08)
Is the ECB dragging its heels? BBC News Online (4/12/08)
ECB cuts eurozone rates to 2.5% BBC News Online (4/12/08)
Sweden
Sweden, like us, seems to have things in hand Times Online (5/12/08)
Sweden cuts interest rates to 2% BBC News Online (4/12/08)
mesSweden cuts interest rates to 2% BBC News Online (4/12/08)
Australia
Australia cuts interest rates to seven year low Times Online (2/12/08)
Thailand
Large cut in Thai interest rates BBC News Online (3/12/08)
China
China’s central bank cuts rates BBC News Online (26/11/08)
Questions
- Explain the transmission mechanism whereby cuts in interest rates are transmitted to an increase in consumer expenditure.
- Using diagrams as appropriate, show how interest rates are determined in the money markets.
- Discuss the relative effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in boosting consumer expenditure.