The Bank of England has extended its policy of increasing the money supply through the process of quantitative easing. After the May meeting of the MPC, the Bank announced that it will increase the amount of assets it is prepared to buy under the ‘Asset Purchase Programme’ from £75 billion to £125 billion. At the same time the ECB has announced that it too will embark on a programme of quantitative easing. The press releases and articles below consider the details.
Bank of England Maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and Increases Size of Asset Purchase Programme by £50 Billion to £125 Billion Bank of England News Release (7/5/09) (see also interview with Bank of England Governor)
Press conference by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB and Lucas Papademos, Vice President of the ECB ECB Press Release (7/5/09) (you can also watch a webcast of the press conference from this link)
Bank of England and European Central Bank extend quantitative easing Telegraph (8/5/09) (see also)
Economy to get extra £50bn boost BBC News (7/5/09)
A QE surprise BBC News: Stephanomics blog (7/5/09)
European Central Bank opts for quantitative easing to lift the eurozone far Times Online (8/5/09)
Fighting recession in the eurozone Financial Times (7/5/09)
ECB dips toe in quantitative easing water Guardian (7/5/09)
Quantitative easing: The story so far BBC News site video
Questions
- Explain how quantitative easing is conducted by the Bank of England and the ECB.
- Examine what determines the effect of quantitative easing on aggregate demand.
- Is quantitative easing the same as open-market operations?
- Explain how quantitative easing is likely to affect exchange rates.
Retail sales in the eurozone have been falling for several months as the recession deepens. The latest figures show a drop in sales of 4.2% between March 2008 and 2009. But what are the implications for fiscal and monetary policy?
With many eurozone countries worried about growing budget deficits the pressure is on the ECB to cut interest rates. Would this help to halt the decline in sales, or do policy-makers need to go further? The linked articles look at the facts and some of the solutions.
Volume of retail trade down by 0.6% in euro area Eurostat news release (6/5/09)
Brussels doubles EU recession forecasts for 2009 Independent (5/5/09)
Euro zone retail sales in record fall IrishTimes.com (24/4/09)
Record decline in eurozone sales BBC News (6/5/09)
EU businesses say worst of crisis over, urge action Guardian (6/5/09)
ECB Is Expected to Cut Rate to 1%, Enlist Other Tools The Wall Street Journal (6/5/09)
ECB set to cut interest rates to record low of 1% Times Online (5/5/09)
See also
Economic Forecast, Spring 2009 European Economy (European Commission)
Questions
- What determines the level of retail sales?
- What would halt the decline in retail sales?
- Discuss various measures that the ECB could take to stimulate the eurozone economy. Why might it be reluctant to take some of the measures?
Economists never like to use simple words when there are more complex ones available! So, the new term for printing money is ‘quantitative easing’. This refers to deliberate increases in the money supply aimed at preventing deflation. The real concern is whether quantitative easing will stoke up inflationary pressures for the future – the balance between inflation and deflation is a fine line to tread. Quantitative easing becomes necessary when there is danger of deflation and interest rates have already been cut as far as is possible.
Another problem, in the short term, is that an increase in the monetary base may have little effect on broader money (M4 in the UK) if people do not want to borrow and thus credit creation is limited.
The articles below all look at various different aspects of quantitative easing.
Europeans Disagree Drastically On Fed Rate Cut Deutsche Welle (17/12/08)
Financial crisis: Free money coming your way! Telegraph (17/12/08)
Wondering what on earth Nils was on about? He’s written this for you BBC News Online (PM programme) (18/12/08)
Japan forecasts no growth in 2009 BBC News Online (19/12/08)
New economic policy: If you haven’t got enough of this stuff, just print some more Scotsman (18/12/08)
Ground Zero The Economist (18/12/08)
Fed throws out the rulebook Times Online (18/12/08)
Quantitative easing: the modern way to print money or a therapy of last resort? Telegraph (8/1/09)
Forget hard choices. We need pampering Times Online (18/12/08)
Jeremy Warner: Darling wants say on ‘quantitative easing’ Independent (8/1/09)
Questions
- Define the term ‘quantitative easing’.
- Explain the mechanism by which the monetary authorities can implement a policy of quantitative easing.
- Discuss the relative effectiveness of cuts in interest rates and quantitative easing to boost aggregate demand in a recession.
- Analyse the impact on an economy of a prolonged period of deflation.
Inflation has reached a 16-year high of 5.2% in September 2008 with rising energy bills leading to much of the increase. This puts inflation well outside the target rate for the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), but analysts are convinced that it will fall sharply in the coming months with some predicting inflation to be just 1% by autumn 2009. Even the Bank of England has now agreed that inflationary risks have moved “decisively to the downside” allowing them to cut the interest rate from 5% to 4.5% as part of a globally coordinated interest rate cut.
Rising gas bills send inflation to 16-year high Times Online (14/10/08)
Inflation high but fear of recession grows Guardian (14/10/08)
Inflation soars to 5.2% Guardian (14/10/08)
Fresh storm gathering as inflation surge adds £3bn to welfare bill Times Online (15/10/08)
Rising cost of living prompts further pay strike threats Times Online (15/10/08)
Where now for UK inflation? BBC News Online (14/10/08)
Consumer inflation reaches 5.2% BBC News Online (14/10/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain how the CPI is calculated. |
| 2. |
What are the principal factors that have led to the rise in inflation to 5.2%? |
| 3. |
Discuss whether, in the current financial crisis, it is appropriate for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be targeting just inflation. |
| 4. |
Explain the transmission mechanism whereby a cut in interest rates will affect inflation. Discuss whether this transmission mechanism will be as relevant in the current financial climate. |
The European Central Bank has its tenth anniversary this year and the year is shaping up to be one of the toughest of the last decade in terms of economic management. While the Eurozone has generally withstood the global credit crisis very well, there are some possible problems emerging and the ECB will have to manage interest rates carefully to cater for the conflicting demands from economies at different stages of the business cycle.
If the Eurozone is on fire, will the ECB get burnt? Observer (1/6/08)
More testing times ahead as the euro turns ten Times Online (26/5/08)
Euro growth better than expected BBC News Online (15/5/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the role of the European Central Bank (ECB). |
| 2. |
Assess the difficulties faced by the ECB in setting interest rates for the whole Eurozone. |
| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which the economic performance of stronger countries in the Eurozone will be constrained by weaker-performing economies. |