A confluence of calamities

World politicians, business leaders, charities and pressure groups are meeting in Davos at the 2022 World Economic Forum. Normally this event takes place in January each year, but it was postponed to this May because of Covid-19 and is the first face-to-face meeting since January 2020.

The meeting takes place amid a series of crises facing the world economy. The IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, described the current situation as a ‘confluence of calamities’. Problems include:

• Continuing hangovers from Covid have caused economic difficulties in many countries.
• The bounceback from Covid has led to demand outpacing supply. The world is suffering from a range of supply-chain problems and shortages of key materials and components, such as computer chips.
• The war in Ukraine has not only caused suffering in Ukraine itself, but has led to huge energy and food price increases as a result of sanctions and the difficulties in exporting wheat, sunflower oil and other foodstuffs.
• Supply shocks have led to rising global inflation. This will feed into higher inflationary expectations, which will compound the problem if they result in higher prices and wages in response to higher costs.
• Central banks have responded by raising interest rates. These dampen an already weakened global economy and could push the world into recession.
• Global inequality is rising rapidly, both within countries and between countries, as Covid disruptions and higher food and energy prices hit the poor disproportionately. Poor people and countries also have a higher proportion of debt and are thus hit especially hard by higher interest rates.
• Global warming is having increasing effects, with a growing incidence of floods, droughts and hurricanes. These lead to crop failures and the displacement of people.
• Countries are increasingly resorting to trade restrictions as they seek to protect their own economies. These slow economic growth.

World leaders at Davos will be debating what can be done. One approach is to use fiscal policy. Indeed, Kristalina Georgieva said that her ‘main message is to recognise that the world must spend the billions necessary to contain Covid in order to gain trillions in output as a result’. But unless the increased expenditure is aimed specifically at tackling supply shortages and bottlenecks, it could simply add to rising inflation. Increasing aggregate demand in the context of supply shortages is not the solution.

In the long run, supply bottlenecks can be overcome with appropriate investment. This may require both greater globalisation and greater localisation, with investment in supply chains that use both local and international sources.

International sources can be widened with greater investment in manufacturing in some of the poorer developing countries. This would also help to tackle global inequality. Greater localisation for some inputs, especially heavier or more bulky ones, would help to reduce transport costs and the consumption of fuel.

With severe supply shocks, there are no simple solutions. With less supply, the world produces less and becomes poorer – at least temporarily until supply can increase again.

Articles

• Economic outlook has ‘darkened’, business and government leaders warn in Davos

Reuters, Balazs Koranyi and Dan Burns (24/5/22)

• Davos: IMF chief says world must ‘spend billions’ to ‘gain trillions’

Deutsche Welle, Kristie Pladson (21/1/22)

• Recession fears cast shadow over Davos gathering

BBC News, Faisal Islam (24/5/22)

• Global economy faces ‘its biggest test’ since WWII

CNN, Julia Horowitz (23/5/22)

• IMF chief warns global economy faces ‘biggest test since second world war’

Financial Times, Chris Giles (23/5/22)

• Age of Scarcity Begins With $1.6 Trillion Hit to World Economy

Bloomberg UK, Maeva Cousin, Tom Orlik and Bryce Baschuk (19/5/22)

• Human Consequences from the Fragmentation of the Global Economy

Modern Diplomacy (23/5/22)

Discussion (video)

• Watch IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser discuss the global economy

CNBC, panel discussion (23/5/22)

Report

• Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine

OECD (March 2022)

Questions