Category: Essential Economics for Business: Ch 03

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Happiness economics

Economics studies scarcity and the allocation of resources. Central to societies’ economic objectives is the reduction in scarcity and central to that is economic growth. Certainly, economic growth is a major objective of all governments. They know that they will be judged by their record on economic growth.

But what do we mean by economic growth? The normal measure is growth in GDP. But does GDP measure how much a society benefits? Many people argue that GDP is a poor proxy for social benefit and that a new method of establishing the level of human well-being and happiness is necessary.

And it’s not just at macro level. As we saw in a previous news article, A new felicific calculus? happiness and unhappiness are central to economists’ analysis of consumer behaviour. If we define ‘utility’ as perceived happiness, standard consumer theory assumes that rational people will seek to maximise the excess of happiness over the costs of achieving it: i.e. will seek to maximise consumer surplus.

There have been three recent developments in the measurement of happiness. ‘Understanding Society’ is a £48.9m government-funded UK study following 40,000 households and is run by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at the University of Essex. It has just published its first findings (see link below).

The second development is the work by the ONS on developing new measures of national well-being and includes a questionnaire asking about the things that matter to people and which should be included in a measure or measures of national well-being.

The third development will be an addition of five new questions to the Integrated Household Survey:

• Overall, how satisfied are you with your life nowadays?
• Overall, how happy did you feel yesterday?
• Overall, how anxious did you feel yesterday?
• Overall, to what extent do you feel the things you do in your life are worthwhile?

But after all this, will we be any closer to getting a correct measure of human well-being? Will the results of such investigations help governments devise policy? Will the government be closer to measuring the costs and benefits of any policy decisions?

Articles

ONS site

Understanding Society site

Questions

  1. For what reasons might GDP be a poor measure of human well-being?
  2. How suitable is a survey of individuals for establishing the nation’s happiness?
  3. How suitable are each of the four specific questions above for measuring a person’s well-being?
  4. Why, do you think, has average life satisfaction not increased over the past 30 years despite a substantial increase in GDP per head?
  5. Give some examples of ways in which national well-being could increase for any given level of GDP. Explain why they would increase well-being.
  6. Should other countries follow Bhutan’s example and use a ‘groass national happiness index’ to drive economic and social policy?
  7. If human well-being could be accurately measured, should that be the sole driver of economic and social policy?
  8. Do people’s spending patterns give a good indication of the things that give them happiness?
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Wisdom of hindsight

Every quarter, the Bank of England publishes its Inflation Report. This analyses developments in the macroeconomy and gives forecasts for inflation and GDP growth over the following 12 quarters. It is on the forecast for inflation in 8 quarters’ time that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee primarily bases its interest rate decision.

According to the February 2011 Inflation Report forecast, CPI inflation is expected to be at or slightly below its 2% target in two year’s time, but there is considerable uncertainty about this, as shown in the fan diagram in Chart 3 of the Overview. What is more, inflation is likely to rise considerably before it falls back. As the Report states:

CPI inflation is likely to pick up to between 4% and 5% in the near term and to remain well above the 2% target over the next year or so, reflecting in part the recent increase in VAT. The near-term profile is markedly higher than in November, largely reflecting further rises in commodity and import prices since then. Further ahead, inflation is likely to fall back, as those effects diminish and downward pressure from spare capacity persists. But both the timing and extent of that decline in inflation are uncertain.

It is interesting to look back at the Inflation Reports of a year ago and two years ago to see what was being forecast then and to compare them with what has actually happened. It’s not too difficult to explain why the forecasts have turned out to be wrong. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Unfortunately, foresight is less wonderful.

Articles
BoE forecasts pave way to rate rise, but King cautious Reuters, Matt Falloon and Fiona Shaikh (16/2/11)
Inflation report: what the economists say Guardian (16/2/11)
Inflation will rise sharply, says Mervyn King BBC News (16/2/11)
The unrepentant governor BBC News blogs: Stephanomics, Stephanie Flanders (16/2/11)
Inflation: Mervyn and me BBC News blogs: Idle Scrawl, Paul Mason (16/2/11)
What would Milton do? The Economist, Buttonwood (16/2/11)
Why inflation hawks are still grounded Fortune, Colin Barr (16/2/11)

Podcast and Webcast
Bank of England Press conference: Podcast (16/2/11)
Bank of England Press conference: Webcast (16/2/11)

Inflation Report
Inflation Report, portal page for latest report and sections, Bank of England
Inflation Report, February 2011: full report, Bank of England

Data
Forecasts for the UK economy: a comparison of independent forecasts, HM Treasury
Prospects for the UK economy, National Institute of Economic and Social Research press release (1/2/11)
Output, Prices and Jobs, The Economist (10/2/11)

Questions

  1. Examine the forecasts for UK inflation and GDP for 2010 made in the February 2009 and February 2010 Bank of England Inflation Reports. How accurate were they?
  2. Explain the difference between the forecasts and the outturn.
  3. Why is it particularly difficult to forecast inflation and GDP growth at the present time for two years hence?
  4. What are the advantages of the Bank of England using a forward-looking rule as opposed to basing interest rate decisions solely on current circumstances?
  5. Explain whether or not it is desirable for interest rates to be adjusted in response to external shocks, such as commodity price increases?
  6. What do you understand by the term ‘core’ inflation? Is this the same thing as demand-pull inflation?
  7. How is the Bank of England’s policy on interest rates likely to affect expectations? What expectations are particularly important here?
  8. Explain whether or not it is desirable for interest rates to be adjusted in response to external shocks, such as commodity price increases?
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The economics of love, marriage and dirty dishes

Economics is about choice – and choices occur in all parts of our lives. One area is personal relationships. Are we making the best of our relationships with family, friends and sexual partners? Increasingly economists are examining human behaviour in such contexts and asking what factors determine our decisions and whether such decisions are rational.

A recent book looks at the economics of marriage and goes under the title of ‘Spousonomics‘. Its authors, Paula Szuchman and Jenny Anderson, use economics “to master love, marriage and dirty dishes”. As they say:

Every marriage is its own little economy, a business of two with a finite number of resources that need to be allocated efficiently.

They look at ways in which such resources can be allocated efficiently. They also look at apparently irrational behaviour and seek to explain it in terms of various ‘failures’ (akin to market failures). They also examine how these failures can be rectified to improve relationships.

So is this economics stepping on the toes of relationship counsellors and psychologists? Or is this the legitimate domain of economists seeking to understand how to optimise in the context of scarce resources – including time and patience?

Spousonomics gets to heart of the matter Belfast Telegraph (19/1/11)
Run your marriage with ‘Spousonomics’: A new book says applying economic rules with transform your relationship Mail Online, Lydia Slater (31/1/11)
Spousonomics: How Economics Can Help Figure Out Your Marriage Book Beast (31/1/11)
Spousonomics Lesson #1: Loss Aversion YouTube (15/1/11)
Economist’s Explanation For Why Getting Married Isn’t Rational Huffington Post, Dan Ariely (15/1/11)
How Economics Saved My Marriage Newsweek, Paula Szuchman (30/1/11)
Want your marriage to profit? New York Post, Sara Stewart (29/1/11)

Spousonomics: blog, Paula Szuchman and Jenny Anderson

Questions

  1. How would you define ‘rational behaviour’ in a personal relationship?
  2. Why may marriage be a better deal generally for men than for women?
  3. Give some examples of asymmetry of information in marriage and why this may lead to bad decision making?
  4. Give some examples of risk averse and risk loving behaviour in personal relationships?
  5. Why are many actions in marriage apparently irrational? Could such actions be explained if the concept of ‘irrationality’ is redefined?
  6. Why may a simple demand curve help to explain why sexual relationships tend to wane in many marriages?
  7. Why does moral hazard occur in marriage? Does a combination or moral hazard and asymmetry of information help to explain divorce?
  8. Should marriage guidance counsellors study economics?!
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Alcohol minimum price

A huge majority of the British population are in agreement on one thing: UK drinking is out of control. At a cost to the NHS of over £2 billion per annum, it’s quite obvious that the current ‘binge drinking’ culture is unsustainable for those doing the drinking and for the NHS.

This issue was raised back in January 2010, when the Labour government came under pressure to impose a minimum price on alcohol. (see All-you-can-drink bans) The report published in early January suggested that a minimum price on alcohol of 50p per unit would save more than 3000 lives per year. Dr. Richard Taylor said:

“The evidence we took showed that minimum pricing was the most effective way forward and at the moment you can sometimes buy beer cheaper than water. Our message is that the price would be put up but only by a little for moderate drinkers. Surely that is a sacrifice to pay for the good health of young people.”

The Coalition’s plan is to introduce a minimum price for alcohol, which would increase the price of a can of lager to a minimum of 38p and a litre bottle of vodka would be a minimum of £10.71. By increasing the price of alcohol, it is hoped that demand will be reduced and this will go some way to tackling the problem of binge drinking.

However, many argue that the proposal will be ineffective. Some believe that the minimum price is not high enough and that such a small increase will have no effect. Others argue that it will only affect small supermarkets and will have a significantly adverse effect on pubs, which are already struggling. Furthermore, a concern is that by raising the price of alcohol, the only people who will suffer are the so-called ‘sensible’ drinkers. Those who go out and binge drink will be largely unresponsive to the higher price.

Articles

How can raising the price of alcohol improve health BBC News, Michelle Roberts (18/1/11)
Pub association responds to alcohol minimum price BBC News (18/1/11)
SNP refuses Britain-wide alcohol minimum price Telegraph, Simon Johnson (19/1/11)
Experts say the new minimum prices on alcohol sales are not enough Wales Online, Abby Alford (19/1/11)
UK drinking ‘is out of control’, two thirds of public believe Guardian, Alan Travis (18/1/11)
Alcohol price plans will only save 21 lives per year, says expert Telegraph, Tom Whitehead (19/1/11)
Supermarkets forced to charge ‘minimum price’ for alcohol in bid to curb binge drinking Mirror News, James Lyons (18/1/11)

Report
Alcohol House of Commons Health Committee (10/12/09)

Questions

  1. Using a diagram, explain how a minimum price control on alcohol will work. What are the likely effects?
  2. Which factors will determine the effectiveness of the minimum price?
  3. Why is it that ‘binge drinkers’ may not be responsive to the higher price?
  4. The Mirror article refers to ‘loss leaders’. What are they and how are they relevant here?
  5. What other policies could be used to tackle binge drinking?
  6. Given that taxes on products such as alcohol and cigarettes raise so much tax revenue for the government, would there be an adverse effect by raising the minimum price on alcohol?
  7. Why is the current drinking culture unsustainable?
  8. Is alcohol a de-merit good? Why is it an example of market failure?
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Confusing the consumer

You will probably have come across the concept of consumer sovereignty. In the mythical world of perfect markets, producers are at the beck and call of consumers. Firms that are not responsive to consumer demand go out of business. In other words, in order to survive they have to respond to any shifts in consumer demand. These in turn can be the result of changes in tastes, changes in income, changes in the prices of other goods, and so on.

Of course, the real world is not perfect, but it is still often assumed that consumers are powerful in influencing what firms sell and at what prices. Well, firms would much rather be in a position of manipulating consumer tastes and hence the huge amounts spent on advertising and marketing.

And it doesn’t end there. Firms use many pricing practices which, to put it mildly, try to confuse consumers or lure them into buying things by making them think they are getting something much cheaper than they really are. Take the case of airline tickets. Some budget airlines offer tickets at extremely low prices, such as 99p. But if you select such a flight, by the time you get to the final screen where taxes, charges, supplements, luggage, etc. are added, the price could exceed £100! And ask yourself this, when you buy something with 20% off, or when you buy ‘three for the price of two’ how rational was your decision? Did you really want the product? Was the offer really ‘genuine’?

The Office of Fair Trading has recently completed two investigations into pricing. As it stated 14 months ago when the investigations were launched:

The first, into online targeting of advertising and prices will cover behavioural advertising and customised pricing, where prices are individually tailored using information collected about a consumer’s internet use. It is expected that this study will be completed by spring 2010.

The second, into advertising of prices, will consider various pricing practices which may potentially mislead consumers. The study will look in particular, but not exclusively, at how these practices are used online.

The following articles look at some of the practices that firms use to drive sales – practices that deliberately attempt to manipulate the consumer. The assumption of ‘perfect knowledge’ by consumers may be a long way from the truth.

Articles
Shoppers lose out on ‘billions’ because of ‘deceitful’ marketing The Telegraph, Harry Wallop (2/12/10)
OFT warns retailers about ‘misleading’ price offers BBC News (2/12/10)
OFT cracks down on price gimmicks Guardian, Rebecca Smithers (2/12/10)
We’re all gulled by special offers BBC News blogs: Peston’s Picks, Robert Peston (2/12/10)

OFT publications
OFT warning on misleading pricing practices, OFT Press Release 124/10 (2/12/10)
OFT launches market studies into advertising and pricing practices, OFT Press Release 126/09 (15/10/09)
Advertising of Prices, Office of Fair Trading, OFT1291 (December 2010)
Advertising of Prices, Office of Fair Trading, project page
Advertising of Prices Study Overview, Office of Fair Trading, video

Questions

  1. Explain each of the different types of pricing practice investigated by the OFT.
  2. Which of the pricing practices are the most misleading for customers?
  3. What is meant by ‘invisible price increases’? How can they be used to mislead the consumer?
  4. Why do certain pricing practices make it hard for the Office for National Statistics to work out the rate of inflation?
  5. Explain the new framework the OFT is adopting for ‘prioritising enforcement action’.
  6. If we end up buying something that we didn’t really intend to buy, does this mean that we were being irrational?
  7. Is advertising generally in or against the interest of consumers? Explain your answer