Oil prices have seen a relentless rise in recent weeks with much speculation that they will go over $100 a barrel in the near future. The high oil price has seen the average price of petrol go over £1 per litre in the UK, shortages and rationing in Tehran and violence in Yemen. So what is causing oil prices to rise and what impact is this likely to have on the global economy?
Tempests, truckers and tribesmen – another week in the oil market Guardian (10/11/07)
Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study Guardian (22/10/07)
The high oil price may begin to take its toll Times Online (12/11/07)
What is driving oil prices so high? BBC News Online (6/11/07)
OPEC: the oil cartel in profile BBC News Online (18/10/07)
Oil price rises after OPEC summit BBC News Online (19/11/07)
Oil markets explained BBC News Online (18/10/07)
Oil prices BBC News Online – Evan Davis blog (10/11/07)
Super-spiked The Economist (1/11/07)
Video
The OPEC statement on oil prices BBC News Online – video link (19/11/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Using supply and demand analysis, show the reasons why oil prices are rising. |
| 2. |
Using diagrams as appropriate, assess the likely impact of rising oil prices on the level of economic growth in the UK. |
| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which OPEC has been the main cause of the rise in oil prices. |
The article below by William Keegan is a discussion of a recent seminar he attended on ‘Black Wednesday and the rebirth of the British economy’. The seminar led him to consider whether policy makers should be guided mainly by rules or discretion in the development of policy. Many would argue that we have moved away from discretion and moved more towards fiscal and monetary rules for the implementation of policy, but the article discusses the extent to which this may be true.
When the going gets rough, can our rulers rely on the rule book? Observer (18/11/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain, using examples as appropriate, the difference between policies based on fiscal and monetary rules and discretion. |
| 2. |
Explain how the MPC “largely ignores the cumulative dangers of a high exchange rate” in its determination of interest rates for the UK economy. |
| 3. |
Discuss how effective the adoption of an inflation target has been in management of the British economy in the past decade. |
The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has signalled that the next year may be the toughest for 15 years with lower economic growth than previously forecast. So, is the UK economy going off the rails?
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the main reasons why the Governor of the Bank of England expects a worse than forecast level of economic growth in 2008. |
| 2. |
Discuss the extent to which a cut in interest rates will help prevent an economic slowdown. What adverse effects could follow from such a policy. |
| 3. |
Discuss one other policy that the government could adopt to try to reduce the extent of the forecast slowdown in economic growth. |
22nd November marks the day when Americans celebrate Thanksgiving Day. However, the cost of this celebration has increased by 11% in the last year according to figures from the American Farm Bureau Federation. One of the main causes of this is the rise in turkey prices but other factors were important as well.
Thanksgiving dinner cost ‘up 11%’ BBC News Online (16/11/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Using supply and demand analysis, illustrate the price changes for turkeys identified in the article. |
| 2. |
Consider possible factors that may have led to the price changes for turkeys identified in the article. |
| 3. |
Discuss the likely change in the quantity of turkeys demanded as a result of the price rise. |
| 4. |
What is the likely approximate value of the cross elasticity of demand for cranberry sauce with respect to the price of turkeys? |
The Northern Rock crisis has caused significant repercussions in the UK financial system. It may continue to do so as the various groups bidding to take over the beleaguered bank try to persuade the government to write off the interest owed on the money borrowed in the run-up to the crisis. In the Guardian article below the build-up to the crisis is considered in detail, while in the other article Anatole Kaletsky argues that central banks need to stand firm against pressure from financiers.
Questions
| 1. |
Explain what is meant by the term ‘moral hazard’. |
| 2. |
Examine the main factors that led up to the Northern Rock crisis. |
| 3. |
Summarise the main reasons why Anatole Kaletsky argues that central banks need to stand firm when pressurised by City financiers. |
| 4. |
Assess the likely impact of the Northern Rock crisis on the performance of the UK economy over the next year. |