The Chancellor’s pre-Budget report was a massive political and economic gamble. The government has clearly recognised the potential seriousness of the economic situation and, in an attempt to avoid a prolonged recession, has injected £21bn into the UK economy in the form of tax cuts and spending increases. The headline grabbing changes were a cut in VAT and an increase in the top rate of income tax to 45% for those earning over £150,000 per year, but there was a raft of other changes including £3bn of public-sector infrastructure projects being brought forward.
Will this fiscal kick be enough to prevent a deep recession? The Chancellor clearly thinks so. He has amended his forecasts for economic growth to acknowledge that GDP will fall by 1% in 2009, but he believes growth will bounce back to 1.75% in 2010. The links below are to a selection of articles relating to the pre-Budget report, but there are plenty of other sites offering discussion and analysis of the issues relating to this unprecendented Keynesian fiscal boost.
Pre-Budget Report: Alistair Darling’s £1 trillion debt gamble Times Online (25/11/08)
Pre-budget report 2008 Guardian (25/11/08)
Pre-Budget report 2008 BBC News Online (25/11/08)
Average earners lose out in PBR BBC News Online (25/11/08)
Pre-Budget Report – the documents BBC News Online (25/11/08) Links to all pre-budget report documents as pdf files
Robinson and Peston analysis of PBR BBC News Online (25/11/08) Video from the Daily Politics show
Darling needs to cure a nation hooked on debt Guardian (24/11/08)
Darling unveils borrowing gamble BBC News Online (24/11/08)
Analysis: is this the death of New Labour? Times Online (24/11/08)
Alistair Darling announces £20bn economic boost Times Online (24/11/08)
Alistair Darling’s £20bn tax giveaway Times Online (24/11/08)
The mother of all gambles Guardian (24/11/08)
Obama and Darling: compare and contrast Guardian (24/11/08) Video comparing the packages announced by Alistair Darling and Barack Obama
The £21bn tax gamble Guardian (25/11/08)
Call this a cure? Guardian (25/11/08)
Questions
- Write a short paragraph outlining the main policies set out in the pre-Budget report.
- Evaluate the likely success of the policies announced in the pre-Budget report in preventing a prolonged recession for the UK economy.
- Discuss the short-term and long-term impact on the UK money markets of the high levels of borrowing required to fund the tax and spending changes set out in the 2008 pre-Budget report.
- Assess the likely impact of the increase in the top tax rate of income tax to 45% on (i) consumer expenditure growth, (ii) tax revenues, and (iii) the incentive for higher rate tax payers to work harder.
- Discuss whether a fiscal solution, such as that set out in the pre-budget report, or a monetary policy solution will be more effective at preventing a prolonged recession in the UK..
According to the article linked to below, the demand for offal has risen by 15% in France since the investment bank Lehman Brothers went out of business. Over the same time period French butchers have faced a 2.6% fall in the demand for beef. So is the global financial crisis set to make offal merchants rich?
Recipes for the recession bring offal back into fashion in France Times Online (20/11/08)
Let them eat offal Guardian (20/11/08)
Questions
- Given the recession in France, as what types of good would you classify (a) offal and (b) beef?
- What values would you expect for the income elasticity of demand for (a) offal and (b) beef?
- What are the principal determinants of the demand for offal?
- Using diagrams as appropriate, explain the changes that have taken place in the market for offal in recent months.
- Discuss the extent to which the increase in demand for offal has been caused by the promotional strategies adopted by The National Federation of French Offal Merchants.
Billions of plastic bags are used and discarded each year around the world and these cause considerable environmental damage – a form of market failure. In this podcast we consider the extent of the problem and policies that countries around the world are adopting to try to minimise this market failure. Many countries, including China, have banned single-use plastic bags completely, while others, such as Ireland, have chosen to tax them to try to limit their use.
Britain’s recycling strategy is under risk following a collapse in waste paper prices. Three quarters of UK waste paper is exported to Far Eastern buyers, but demand from this region has collapsed in recent months. The price collapse has led to a surplus of recyclable paper and some local authorities have proposed using Ministry of Defence (MoD) sites to store the waste while there is no market or use for it.
Paper price collapse blows hole in Britain’s recycling strategy Guardian (11/11/08)
Recycled waste could be stored on MoD bases Guardian (16/11/08)
Questions
- Define the terms (i) private cost and (ii) external cost.
- What are the external costs resulting from disposing of waste paper and other recyclable products in landfill sites?
- Using diagrams as appropriate, illustrate the changes that have taken place in the market for waste paper.
- Evaluate two strategies that the government could adopt to increase the price of waste paper.
- Discuss the likely success of a policy of storing waste on MoD sites to await an upturn in the recycling market..
The G20 Leaders Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy took place on November 14–15, 2008, in Washington DC. Many commentators dubbed this meeting ‘Bretton Woods II’. Bretton Woods – Mark I was a meeting in the summer of 1944 that set out the foundations for the post World War II economic order. It set up a system of semi-fixed exchange rates and led to the establishment of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bretton Woods Mark II was perhaps less historically significant, but the world leaders agreed a plan to boost the world economy through tax cuts, higher public expenditure and lower interest rates; something Lord Keynes, the principal negotiator for the UK at Bretton Woods Mark I, would have wholeheartedly approved of!
G20 to back global tax cuts Times Online (16/11/08)
This week, our leaders have a chance to make the world anew Guardian (9/11/08)
A dangerous free-for-all Guardian (11/11/08)
Bretton Woods II – five key points on the road to a new global financial deal Guardian (14/11/08)
G20 summit: ‘The world economy is broken and they need to reflate’ Guardian (14/11/08) Podcast
Doubts raised over prospects of success for ‘hasty summit’ Guardian (15/11/08)
Our chance for a working regulatory regime Guardian (15/11/08)
Questions
- Write a short paragraph summarising the outcomes of Bretton Woods II.
- Assess the extent to which the fiscal and monetary stimulus agreed by the G20 leaders will be successful at minimising the depth of the global recession.
- Discuss the need for regulatory reform of the world financial system (as considered at Bretton Woods II).
- The G20 “signalled a determination to press on with the completion of the Doha world trade round”. Assess the extent towhich this is likely to be successful.
