Category: Economics: Ch 22

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From Reaganomics to Trussonomics

In her bid to become Conservative party leader, Liz Truss promised to make achieving faster economic growth her number-one policy objective. This would involve pursuing market-orientated supply-side policies.

These policies would include lower taxes on individuals to encourage people to work harder and more efficiently, and lower taxes on business to encourage investment. The policy would also involve deregulation, which would again encourage investment, both domestic and inward investment from overseas. These proposals echoed the policies pursued in the 1980s by President Ronald Reagan in the USA and Margaret Thatcher in the UK.

On September 23, the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented a ‘mini-Budget’ – although the size of the changes made it far from ‘mini’. This, as anticipated, included policies intended to boost growth, including scrapping the 45% top rate of income tax, which is currently paid by people earning over £150 000 (a policy withdrawn on 3 October after massive objections), cutting the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19%, scrapping the planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25%, scrapping the planned rise in national insurance by 1.25 percentage points, a cut in the stamp duty on house purchase and scrapping the limit placed on bankers’ bonuses. In addition, he announced the introduction of an unlimited number of ‘investment zones’ which would have lower business taxes, streamlined planning rules and lower regulation. The policies would be funded largely from extra government borrowing.

Theoretically, the argument is simple. If people do work harder and firms do invest more, then potential GDP will rise – a rise in aggregate supply. This can be shown on an aggregate demand and supply diagram. If the policy works, the aggregate supply curve will shift to the right. Real GDP will rise and there will be downward pressure on prices. In Figure 1, real GDP will rise from Y0 to Y1 and the price level will fall from P0 to P1. However, things are not as simple as this. Indeed, there are two major problems.

The first concerns whether tax cuts will incentivise people to work harder. The second concerns what happens to aggregate demand. I addition to this, the policies are likely to have a profound effect on income distribution.

Tax cuts and incentives

Cutting the top rate of income tax would have immediately given people at the top of the income scale a rise in post-tax income. This would have created a substitution effect and an income effect. Each extra pound that such people earn would be worth more in post-tax income – 60p rather than 55p. This would provide an incentive for people to substitute work for leisure as work is now more rewarding. This is the substitution effect. On the other hand, with the windfall of extra income, they now would have needed to work less in order to maintain their post-tax income at its previous level. They may well indeed, therefore, have decided to work less and enjoy more leisure. This is the income effect.

With the diminishing marginal utility of income, generally the richer people are, the bigger will be the income effect and the smaller the substitution effect. Thus, cutting the top rate of income tax may well have led to richer people working less. There is no evidence that the substitution effect would be bigger.

If top rates of income tax are already at a very high level, then cutting then may well encourage more work. After all, there is little incentive to work more if the current rate of tax is over 90%, say. Cutting them to 80% could have a big effect. This was the point made by Art Laffer, one of Ronald Reagan’s advisors. He presented his arguments in terms of the now famous ‘Laffer curve’, shown in Figure 2. This shows the total tax revenue raised at different tax rates.

If the average tax rate were zero, no revenue would be raised. As the tax rate is raised above zero, tax revenues will increase. The curve will be upward sloping. Eventually, however, the curve will peak (at tax rate t1). Thereafter, tax rates become so high that the resulting fall in output more than offsets the rise in tax rate. When the tax rate reaches 100 per cent, the revenue will once more fall to zero, since no one will bother to work.

If the economy were currently to the right of t1, then cutting taxes would increase revenue as there would be a major substitution effect. However, most commentators argue that the UK economy is to the left of t1 and that cutting the top rate would reduce tax revenues. Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2012 suggested that t1 for the top rate of income tax was at around 48% and that cutting the rate below that would reduce tax revenue. Clearly according to this analysis, 40% is considerably below t1.

As far as corporation tax is concerned, the 19% rate is the lowest in the G20 and yet the UK suffers from low rates of both domestic investment and inward direct investment. There is no evidence that raising it somewhat, as previously planned, will cut investment. And as far as individual entrepreneurs are concerned, cutting taxes is likely to have little effect on the desire to invest and expand businesses. The motivation of entrepreneurs is only partly to do with the money. A major motivation is the sense of achievement in building a successful business.

Creating investment zones with lower taxes, no business rates and lower regulations may encourage firms to set up there. But much of this could simply be diverted investment from elsewhere in the country, leaving overall investment little changed.

To assess these questions, the government needs to model the outcomes and draw on evidence from elsewhere. So far this does not seem to have happened. They government did not even present a forecast of the effects of its policies on the public finances, something that the OBR normally presents at Budget time. This was one of the reasons for the collapse in confidence of sterling and gilts (government bonds) in the days following the mini-Budget.

Effects on aggregate demand

Cutting taxes and financing them from borrowing will expand aggregate demand. In Figure 1, the AD curve will also shift to the right and this will push up prices. Inflation is already a serious problem in the economy and unfunded tax cuts will make it worse. Higher inflation will result in the Bank of England raising interest rates further to curb aggregate demand. But higher interest rates, by raising borrowing costs, are likely to reduce investment, which will have a negative supply-side effect.

The problem here is one of timing. Market-orientated supply-side policies, if they work to increase potential GDP, will take time – measured in years rather than months. The rise in aggregate demand will be much quicker and will thus precede the rise in supply. This could therefore effectively kill off the rise in supply as interest rates rise, the exchange rate falls and the economy is pushed towards recession. Indeed, the mini-Budget immediately sparked a run on the pound and the exchange rate fell.

The rising government debt may force the government to make cuts in public expenditure. Rather than cutting current expenditure on things such as nurses, teachers and benefits, it is easier to cut capital expenditure on things such as roads and other infrastructure. But this will have adverse supply-side effects.

Effects on income distribution

Those advocating market-orientated supply-side policies argue that, by making GDP bigger, everyone can gain. They prefer to focus on the size of the national ‘pie’ rather than its distribution. If the rich initially gain, the benefits will trickle down to the poorest in society. This trickle-down theory was popular in the 1980s with politicians such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan and, more recently, with Republican presidents, such as Goerge W Bush and Donald Trump. There are two problems with this, however.

The first, which we have already seen, is whether such policies actually do increase the size of the ‘pie’.

The second is how much does trickle down. During the Thatcher years, income inequality in the UK grew, as it did in the USA under Ronald Reagan. According to an IMF study in 2015 (see the link to the IMF analysis below), policies that increase the income share of the poor and the middle class do increase growth, while those that raise the income share of the top 20 per cent result in lower growth.

After the mini-Budget was presented, the IMF criticised it for giving large untargeted tax cuts that would heighten inequality. The poor would gain little from the tax cuts. The changes to income tax and national insurance mean that someone earning £20 000 per year will gain just £167 per year, while someone earning £200 000 will gain £5220. What is more, the higher interest rates and higher prices resulting from the lower exchange rate are likely to wipe out the modest gains to the poor.

Podcast

Articles

Analysis

Questions

  1. Distinguish between market-orientated supply-side policies and interventionist ones. Consider the advantages and disadvantages of each.
  2. Explain why bond prices fell after the mini-Budget. What was the Bank of England’s response and why did this run counter to its plan for quantitative tightening?
  3. How might a tax-cutting Budget be designed to help the poor rather than the rich? Would this have beneficial supply-side effects?
  4. Find out about the 1972 tax-cutting Budget of Anthony Barber, the Chancellor in Ted Heath’s government, that led to the ‘Barber boom’ and then rampant inflation. Are there any similarities between the 1972 Budget and the recent mini-Budget?
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Will the housing market growth end with a crash? (updated 1/10/22)

In July this year, the UK saw the highest annual house price inflation rate since May 2003. The housing market is experiencing an excess demand for houses. There is a greater demand from buyers than there are homes for sale. This has led to a double-digit annual rise for the 10th consecutive month. Nationwide building society data show that UK house prices rose by 10% in the year to August 2022, with the typical property price rising by £50 000 in the past two years to £273 751.

The market has seen this continued growth in house prices despite the growing pressure on buyers’ budgets. It is even reported that estate agents are seeing a recent surge in activity. However, can the housing market continue to grow, or will we witness a crash?

House market activity

There are also signs that the housing market is now losing some momentum. According to the Nationwide, the average price of a home was £294 260 in August, 0.4% higher than the previous month. Although this marked another record high, the rise was less than earlier in the year. Halifax called the monthly rise ‘relatively modest’ compared with the rapid house price inflation that has been seen in recent times, where the average monthly increase in house prices has been 0.9%. The latest increase marked a return to growth for house prices, after they fell in July for the first time in more than a year.

However, the annual growth did slow in August, despite house prices still growing. The annual rate of house price growth dropped to 11.5% from 11.8% in July – the lowest level in three months. The Nationwide is predicting that an increase in energy costs and rising mortgage interest rates will add to the pressure on household budgets in the coming months. Energy prices are continually rising, and it is suggested that the least energy-efficient properties could typically see bills surge by £2700 a year, or £225 a month. This added squeeze on households’ disposable income, combined with the expectation that that inflation is set to remain in double digits into next year, is predicted to slow house price increases further or even cause them to fall.

Barratt Developments, the country’s biggest housebuilder, stated that the number of homes reserved each week until the end of August had fallen below the level of a year earlier, and was now lower than before the coronavirus pandemic. This has been partly driven by people anticipating further rises in interest rates and provides further evidence of a slowdown in the housing market.

Bank of England decisions on interest rates

In early August, the Bank of England announced its biggest increase in interest rates in 27 years, taking the UK base rate from 1.25% to 1.75%, a 13-year high. This rise in the base rate, which has a knock-on effect on other interest rates, was an attempt to control rising inflation as energy and food prices soared.

Then, on Thursday 22nd September, the Bank of England announced a further 0.5 percentage point rise in the base rate to 2.25%. This is now the highest level for 14 years, but this is unlikely to be the peak as it is expected that the Bank will continue raising rates into next year.

The government’s mini-Budget on 23 September involved a price cap on energy prices, estimated to cost around £150 billion, and various tax cuts. The package would be funded largely by borrowing. This is likely to drive interest rates up further. Indeed, in response to the package, the interest rate on new government bonds soared and price of existing bonds (which pay a fixed amount per annum) correspondingly fell, thereby increasing their yield. Yields rose above 4%; they were just 1.3% rate at the start of the year.

These further increases in interest rates will have a negative impact on the market as they feed through to mortgage rates, which have already increased noticeably recently. Indeed, following the mini-Budget and the rise in bond prices, around half the mortgage products on offer to new buyers or those re-mortgaging were withdrawn. Many households with mortgages will thus see their costs rise. Experts have warned that borrowers in the UK are especially exposed, with many people having mortgages tracking central bank rates or having short-term fixed deals set to expire. Those on fixed-rate deals will not be immediately affected, although their costs could jump when their deals come up for renewal.

The impact of a recession

Even though the housing market is slowing, it is nowhere near a crash. But, with the Bank of England predicting a recession, there is concern about the impact on the housing market. In August, the Bank had warned that Britain was likely to enter into a recession by December this year and predicted it to last 15 months. However, with the announcement of higher interest rates, the Bank now warns that the UK may already be in a recession. The central bank had previously expected the economy to grow between July and September, but it now believes it will have shrunk by 0.1%. This comes after the economy already shrank slightly between April and June.

A recession is defined as when an economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters. During a recession, house prices typically flatline or decrease but it all depends on how severe the recession is. Historically, when there is a deep and prolonged contraction in the economy with rising unemployment, house prices tend to fall.

Finance experts have predicted that the UK will suffer its longest downturn since the 2008 financial crisis. The global financial crisis saw the availability of mortgage finance contract, making it much harder for people to borrow, thereby reducing the demand for homes. This, together with rising unemployment, resulted in average house prices falling by 12%. It was not until 2010 that the housing market in London began to recover and not until 2013 in the wider UK market.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have warned:

Real household post-tax income is projected to fall sharply in 2022 and 2023, while consumption growth turns negative.

This will be the first recession in the UK since the height of the Covid crisis 2020. However, then the housing market didn’t behave in the typical way and property prices continued rising. This was fuelled by people working from home, which encouraged both house movers and first-time buyers to seek houses with sufficient space. The housing market has been rampant ever since as people have taken advantage of low interest rates and also of the stamp duty holiday between July 2020 and September 2021 (see the blog, The red hot housing market).

This time, however, the predicted recession could finally put the brakes on growing house prices as people’s real incomes fall. With people faced with higher mortgage rates and the cost-of-living squeeze, the growth in demand for property is likely to slow rapidly: to 5% in the second half of this year and then lower still in 2023. This could eventually match the supply of property. Supply may also increase as a result of an increase in repossessions as people struggle to pay their monthly mortgage bills.

Cuts to stamp duty

In his mini-Budget on 23 September, the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, announced that stamp duty on house purchases would be cut. The threshold at which buyers have to start paying the duty would rise from £125 000 to £250 000 and first-time buyers would not pay any duty on the first £425 000.

This cut in tax on house purchase will go some way to offsetting the effect of rising mortgage interest rates and is likely to reduce the slowdown in house price rises.

First time buyers

A recession could actually help some people climb onto the property ladder if it pushes property prices down. That would lead to smaller deposits being needed and lower total amounts having to be borrowed.

However, despite the prospect of falling house prices, it still remains tough for first-time buyers. The biggest risk for hopeful homebuyers in a recession is losing their job. At a time of increased uncertainty, some first-time buyers are likely to wait, hoping that homes will become cheaper. However, there have only been 31 months in the past 20 years when house prices have fallen, all of which occurred between 2008 and 2012. Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor said:

Fast-rising rents are not offering any relief and could keep some buyers in the hunt for a home for longer than they would like.

Also, prices are not yet actually falling, even though demand is slowing. Demand for homes is still outstripping the available housing inventory. This means that the market is still a difficult one for first-time buyers and those looking to climb up the property ladder.

At first sight, it may seem that cuts to stamp duty will help first-time buyers, especially as the duty is paid after a higher threshold than for other purchasers. However, the stamp duty cuts will stimulate demand, which, as we argued above, will reduce the slowdown in house price rises. Also, despite the threshold being higher for first-time buyers, by stimulating house price inflation, most if not all the gains in the duty cut could be offset and could risk pricing-out first-time buyers.

Conclusion

The economic outlook is uncertain. However, the rises in the energy price cap in October and beyond, and the general rise on the cost of living as prices rise faster than wages, are expected to increase pressure on household finances, which will limit the amount that prospective house buyers can afford to borrow. As a result, house price inflation is expected to fall across the majority of UK regions, as buyer demand eases. But just how much house price inflation will fall and whether it will turn negative (i.e. a fall in house prices) is hard to predict

Articles

Questions

  1. With the aid of a diagram, explain the current demand and supply in the housing market.
  2. How does an expectation of a rise in interest rates affect the demand for housing?
  3. Define the term recession. Why is the UK likely to enter recession (if it has not already done so)?
  4. Describe the characteristics of the business cycle during a recession.
  5. How do expectations of house price increases affect actual house price increases?
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Looming stagflation


Aggregate demand has been booming as the world bounces back from the pandemic. At the same time, aggregate supply is severely constrained. These supply constraints are making potential national income smaller – at least temporarily. The result is that many countries are heading for recession.

At the same time, supply constraints are causing prices to rise, especially energy and food prices. This cost-push inflation is made worse by the rises in aggregate demand.

The result is ‘stagflation’ – a recession, or stagnation, accompanied by high inflation. In the UK, the latest Bank of England Monetary Policy Report forecast that by the end of 2022, CPI inflation would be 13.1% and that in 2023, real GDP would fall by 1.5%.

This effect of an adverse supply shock accompanied by relatively buoyant aggregate demand (at least initially) can be illustrated with an aggregate demand and supply diagram. The supply shock is illustrated by an upward shift to the left of the short-run aggregate supply curve (SRAS). (If the shock is a direct rise in prices, then it can be seen as a vertical upward shift. If it is a fall in the total amount supplied, then it can be seen as a horizontal leftward shift.) In the diagram, aggregate supply shifts from SRAS1 to SRAS2. The price level rises from P1 to P2. If costs go on rising or supply goes on falling then the curve will go on shifting upwards to the left.

If the government responds by increasing benefits or reducing taxes, then, other things being
equal, aggregate demand will rise. In the diagram, the AD curve will shift to the right, e.g. from AD1 to AD2. Real GDP only falls to Y3 not Y2. However, the price level rises further: from P2 to P3.

Why has aggregate supply fallen?

There are several factors that have contributed to the fall in aggregate supply/rise in costs.

  • Stretched supply chains, which had been adversely affected by Covid. Congestion at container ports has led to delays, with warehouses and shops being short of stock.
  • Labour shortages, with many people not returning to the labour force after being laid off or furloughed, or only returning part time, leaving firms needing more people. The problem has been particularly acute in the UK, with many EU citizens having returned to the EU after Brexit and the UK having to rely increasingly on staff from outside the EU.
  • The war in Ukraine. This has had a major impact on the supply of natural gas and oil. The war has also led to a fall in grain and other food supplies from Ukraine, as ports have been blockaded and there have been disruptions to planting and harvesting.
  • Climate change is causing more severe weather events, such as droughts in Europe and western USA. The droughts of 2022 will compound the problem of food shortages and food price inflation.
  • In the UK, Brexit costs, such as increased administrative burdens and difficulties in both exporting and importing, have dampened production and hence adversely impacted on aggregate supply.
  • Increased industrial action. As the cost of living soars, unions are demanding pay increases to match the rise in the cost of living. Pay rises further increase firms’ costs – and the bigger the pay rises, the bigger the rise in costs.

The problem with a fall in aggregate supply is that it reduces real GDP. People as a whole are poorer. To use a common analogy, the national ‘pie’ has shrunk. Giving everyone a bigger knife and fork (i.e. a rise in nominal aggregate demand) will not make people better off. It just compounds the problem of rising prices, as the diagram shows.

In the short term, with GDP shrinking, there is a major issue of distribution. If the poor are to be given help so that they are not made even poorer, then other people will have been made worse off. In other words, their nominal incomes must rise more slowly than prices.

Monetary policy

Central banks generally have a mandate of keeping inflation close to 2% over the medium term. Their levers are changes in interest rates, underpinned by changes in the money supply – in extreme times by quantitative easing (creating money by buying assets with newly created money) or quantitative tightening (withdrawing money from the economy by selling assets). Central banks, faced by soaring inflation, have been raising interest rates. The Fed has recently raised the Federal Funds rate by 0.75 percentage points (75 basis points) and the Bank of England and the European Central Bank by 0.5 percentage points (50 basis points).

Raising interest rates reduces inflation by dampening aggregate demand. In the diagram, the AD curve shifts to the left (or shifts to the right less quickly). This will dampen inflation, as falling real demand will force firms to cut prices. But it will also force them to cut output and employment, thereby worsening the recession.

Central banks recognise this dilemma, but also recognise that if inflation is not brought rapidly under control, it could spiral upwards, with wages and prices chasing each other in a wage–price spiral, which only gets worse as inflationary expectations rise. The short-term pain of falling real income is a price worth paying for getting inflation under control.

Fiscal policy

In the short term, there is little that fiscal policy can do to raise real GDP. The focus, as it was during the pandemic, must therefore be in providing relief to those most in need.

In the UK, the energy price cap set by Ofgem will see likely energy bills for the typical household quadruple in just a year, from a little over £1000 per annum at January 2021 prices to over £4200 in predicted January 2023 prices. These higher prices partly reflect rising wholesale energy costs and partly the need for energy companies, in a process known as ‘backwardation’, to recoup hedging costs they have incurred so as not to be forced out of business.

Relief for consumers can be in various forms. For example, the government could pay subsidies to energy suppliers to cap prices at a lower level, perhaps just for the poorest households. Or it could pay grants to help people with their bills. Again, these could be targeted to the poorest families, or paid on a sliding scale according to income. Or VAT on gas and electricity could be scrapped.

Generally the more people are entitled to help, the more expensive it is for the government and hence the less generous the help per family is likely to be.

Then there is the question of whether such measures should be accompanied by a rise in broadly-based tax, such as income tax, or whether the government should borrow more, which would be likely to push up interest rates and increase the cost of servicing government debt.

One topic of debate in the Conservative leadership contest is whether taxes should be cut to help people struggling with the cost of living. Whilst such a policy, if carefully targeted to investment, might increase aggregate supply over the longer term, in the short term it will increase aggregate demand and will add to inflationary pressures.

Targeting tax cuts to the poor is difficult. Cutting income tax rates has the opposite effect. The rich pay more income tax than the poor and will benefit most from a cut in rates. An alternative is to raise personal allowances. This will provide a bigger percentage help to income taxpayers on lower incomes, but provides no help at all for the poorest people who currently pay no income tax.

Conclusion

The supply shocks are making countries poorer. The focus in the short term, therefore, needs to be on income distribution and how to help those suffering the most.

To end on a note of optimism: the energy shocks are causing governments to invest in alternative sources, such as wind, solar and nuclear. When these come on line, it is expected that energy prices will fall.

As far as overall inflation is concerned, although the Bank of England is forecasting CPI inflation of 13.1% by Q4 2022, it is also forecasting that this will have fallen to 5.5% by Q4 2023 and to just 0.8% by Q3 2024. Fingers crossed.

Articles

Reports etc.

Questions

  1. What are the most efficient policies for helping those in energy poverty?
  2. Why is inflation forecast to fall later in 2023?
  3. What determines the shape of the short-run aggregate supply curve?
  4. What government policies would support (a) labour productivity; (b) investment?
  5. How might the market solve the problem of supply shortages?
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A confluence of calamities

World politicians, business leaders, charities and pressure groups are meeting in Davos at the 2022 World Economic Forum. Normally this event takes place in January each year, but it was postponed to this May because of Covid-19 and is the first face-to-face meeting since January 2020.

The meeting takes place amid a series of crises facing the world economy. The IMF’s Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, described the current situation as a ‘confluence of calamities’. Problems include:

  • Continuing hangovers from Covid have caused economic difficulties in many countries.
  • The bounceback from Covid has led to demand outpacing supply. The world is suffering from a range of supply-chain problems and shortages of key materials and components, such as computer chips.
  • The war in Ukraine has not only caused suffering in Ukraine itself, but has led to huge energy and food price increases as a result of sanctions and the difficulties in exporting wheat, sunflower oil and other foodstuffs.
  • Supply shocks have led to rising global inflation. This will feed into higher inflationary expectations, which will compound the problem if they result in higher prices and wages in response to higher costs.
  • Central banks have responded by raising interest rates. These dampen an already weakened global economy and could push the world into recession.
  • Global inequality is rising rapidly, both within countries and between countries, as Covid disruptions and higher food and energy prices hit the poor disproportionately. Poor people and countries also have a higher proportion of debt and are thus hit especially hard by higher interest rates.
  • Global warming is having increasing effects, with a growing incidence of floods, droughts and hurricanes. These lead to crop failures and the displacement of people.
  • Countries are increasingly resorting to trade restrictions as they seek to protect their own economies. These slow economic growth.

World leaders at Davos will be debating what can be done. One approach is to use fiscal policy. Indeed, Kristalina Georgieva said that her ‘main message is to recognise that the world must spend the billions necessary to contain Covid in order to gain trillions in output as a result’. But unless the increased expenditure is aimed specifically at tackling supply shortages and bottlenecks, it could simply add to rising inflation. Increasing aggregate demand in the context of supply shortages is not the solution.

In the long run, supply bottlenecks can be overcome with appropriate investment. This may require both greater globalisation and greater localisation, with investment in supply chains that use both local and international sources.

International sources can be widened with greater investment in manufacturing in some of the poorer developing countries. This would also help to tackle global inequality. Greater localisation for some inputs, especially heavier or more bulky ones, would help to reduce transport costs and the consumption of fuel.

With severe supply shocks, there are no simple solutions. With less supply, the world produces less and becomes poorer – at least temporarily until supply can increase again.

Articles

Discussion (video)

Report

Questions

  1. Draw an aggregate demand and supply diagram (AD/AS or DAD/DAS) to illustrate the effect of a supply shock on output and prices.
  2. Give some examples of supply-side policies that could help in the current situation.
  3. What are the arguments for and against countries using protectionist policies at the current time?
  4. What policies could countries adopt to alleviate rapid rises in the cost of living for people on low incomes? What problems do these policies pose?
  5. What are the arguments for and against imposing a windfall tax on energy companies and using the money to support poor people?
  6. If the world slips into recession, should central banks and governments use expansionary monetary and fiscal policies?
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A Spring dose of fiscal policy

On March 23, Rishi Sunak, the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer, delivered his Spring Statement, in which he announced changes to various taxes and grants. These measures were made against the background of rising inflation and falling living standards.

CPI inflation, currently at 6.2%, is still rising and the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that inflation will average 7.4% this year. The poor spend a larger proportion of their income on energy and food than the rich. With inflation rates especially high for gas, electricity and basic foodstuffs, the poor have been seen their cost of living rise by considerably more than the overall inflation rate.

According to the OBR, the higher inflation, by reducing real income and consumption, is expected to reduce the growth in real GDP this year from the previously forecast 6% to 3.8% – a much smaller bounce back from the fall in output during the early stages of the pandemic. Despite this growth in GDP, real disposable incomes will fall by an average of £488 per person this year. As the OBR states:

With inflation outpacing growth in nominal earnings and net taxes due to rise in April, real living standards are set to fall by 2.2 per cent in 2022/23 – their largest financial year fall on record – and not recover their pre-pandemic level until 2024/25.

Fiscal measures

The Chancellor announced a number of measures, which, he argued, would provide relief from rises in the cost of living.

  • Previously, the Chancellor had announced that national insurance (NI) would rise by 1.25 percentage points this April. In the Statement he announced that the starting point for paying NI would rise from a previously planned £9880 to £12 570 (the same as the starting point for income tax). This will more than offset the rise in the NI rate for those earning below £32 000. This makes the NI system slightly more progressive than before. (Click here for a PowerPoint of the chart.)
  • A cut in fuel duty of 5p per litre. The main beneficiaries will be those who drive more and those with bigger cars – generally the better off. Those who cannot afford a car will not benefit at all, other than from lower transport costs being passed on in lower prices.
  • The 5% VAT on energy-saving household measures such as solar panels, insulation and heat pumps will be reduced to zero.
  • The government’s Household Support Fund will be doubled to £1bn. This provides money to local authorities to help vulnerable households with rising living costs.
  • Research and development tax credits for businesses will increase and small businesses will each get another £1000 per year in the form of employment allowances, which reduce their NI payments. He announced that taxes on business investment will be further cut in the Autumn Budget.
  • The main rate of income tax will be cut from 20% to 19% in two years’ time. Unlike the rise in NI, which only affects employment and self-employment income, the cut in income tax will apply to all incomes, including rental and savings income.

Fiscal drag

The Chancellor announced that public finances are stronger than previously forecast. The rapid growth in tax receipts has reduced public-sector borrowing from £322 billion (15.0 per cent of GDP) in 2020/21 to an expected £128 billion (5.4 per cent of GDP) in 2021/22, £55 billion less than the OBR forecast in October 2021. This reflects not only the growth in the economy, but also inflation, which results in fiscal drag.

Fiscal drag is where rises in nominal incomes mean that the average rate of income tax rises. As tax thresholds for 2022/23 are frozen at 2021/22 levels, a greater proportion of incomes will be taxed at higher rates and tax-free allowances will account for a smaller proportion of incomes. The higher the rate of increase in nominal incomes, the greater fiscal drag becomes. The higher average rate of tax drags on real incomes and spending. On the other hand, the extra tax revenue reduces government borrowing and gives the government more room for extra spending or tax cuts.

The growth in poverty

With incomes of the poor not keeping pace with inflation, many people are facing real hardship. While the Spring Statement will provide a small degree of support to the poor through cuts in fuel duty and the rise in the NI threshold, the measures are poorly targeted. Rather than cutting fuel duty by 5p, a move that is regressive, removing or reducing the 5% VAT on gas and electricity would have been a progressive move.

Benefits, such as Universal Credit and the State Pension, are uprated each April in line with inflation the previous September. When inflation is rising, this means that benefits will go up by less than the current rate of inflation. This April, benefits will rise by last September’s annual inflation rate of 3.1% – considerably below the current inflation rate of 6.2% and the forecast rate for this year of 7.4%. This will push many benefit recipients deeper into poverty.

One measure rejected by Rishi Sunak is to impose a temporary windfall tax on oil companies, which have profited from the higher global oil prices. Such taxes are used in Norway and are currently being considered by the EU. Tax revenues from such a windfall tax could be used to fund benefit increases or tax reductions elsewhere and these measures could be targeted on the poor.

Articles

OBR data and analysis

Questions

  1. Are the changes made to national insurance by the Chancellor progressive or regressive? Could they have been made more progressive and, if so, how?
  2. What are the arguments for and against cutting income tax from 20% to 19% in two years’ time rather than reversing the current increases in national insurance at that point?
  3. What will determine how rapidly (if at all) public-sector borrowing decreases over the next few years?
  4. What are automatic fiscal stabilisers? How does their effect vary with the rate of inflation?
  5. Examine the public finances of another country. Are the issues similar to those in the UK? Recommend fiscal policy measures for your chosen country and provide a justification.