The global economy has been in a recession since December 2007, but have we now passed the worst of it? Whilst companies are still going bankrupt, unemployment is still rising, the housing market is still looking pretty gloomy and government debt surely can’t go up anymore, there are indications that we’ve reached the bottom of the recession. There are murmurs that the economy may start to recover towards of the end of the year.
But, of course, economics wouldn’t be economics if there wasn’t considerable disagreement. Many still believe that the worst is yet to come. According to the OECD, the recession is ‘near the bottom’. Yet, output in the UK is still set to decline by 4.3% in 2009, and by 2010 the budget deficit is predicted to have grown to 14%. Unemployment is at its highest since November 1996, but US consumer confidence is said to be rising and the pound is climbing. Read these articles and make up your mind about the state of the UK and global economy!!
Business and Consumer Surveys (After following link, click on chart) European Commission, Economic and Financial Affairs (29/6/09)
Pound climbs against euro as King sees signs recession easing Bloomberg, Lukanyo Mnyanda, Gavin Finch (20/6/09)
Bank says banking crisis easing BBC News (25/6/09)
First signs of optimism returning to some parts of financial services CBI PRess Release (29/6/09)
Darling and King agreed on tentative recovery Guardian, Ashley Seager (17/6/09)
Sharp contration for UK economy BBC News (30/6/09)
Housing market knocked by price falls Moneywise (22/6/09)
OECD says recession ‘near bottom’ BBC News, Steve Schifferes (24/6/09)
US Federal Reserve says recession is ‘easing’ Telegraph, James Quinn (24/6/09)
Public borrowing at record levels BBC News (18/6/09)
Leading index suggests recession easing UPI.com (18/6/09)
US consumer confidence up in June BBC News (26/6/09)
Blow for housing market as prices fall The Independent, David Prosser (22/6/09)
Most UK businesses freeze pay as recession bites, CBI says Telegraph, Peter Taylor (23/6/09)
Questions
- What are the typical characteristics of a recession? Do the current statistics of the four main macroeconomic objectives fit in with what economic theory tells us?
- Which policies would governments normally implement to get a economy into the expansionary/recovery phase of the business cycle and how do they work?
- Why is consumer confidence so key to economic recovery?
- What type of banking regulation is needed to prevent a similar crisis happening again?
- Movements in the housing market are often seen as indicators of the state of the economy. Why is this?
Since Labour has been in power the gap between rich and poor has remained more or less unchanged – a fact that might be surprising given a Labour government and fiscal policies that have become increasingly redistributive in nature. In fact income distribution in the UK has not changed since 1991 according to Office for National Statistics figures. Economists measure income distribution in various ways, but two of the key indicators are the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve. For more information on income distribution and some useful data, you may like to download an income data spreadsheet from the IFS (zip file). If you are interested in where you fit into the income scale, then you may also like to try the Institute for Fiscal Studies interactive income model. Why not try a range of different scenarios to see where different levels of income fit into the overall income scale.
UK income gap ‘same as in 1991’ BBC News Online (16/12/08)
Questions
- Define the terms (a) Gini coefficient and (b) Lorenz curve.
- Using diagrams as appropriate, show how the Lorenz curve will change when income distribution becomes (a) more equal and (b) less equal.
- Explain how the value of the Gini coefficient will change as income distribution gets more equal. With reference to the IFS spreadsheet (linked to above) descibe how the Gini coefficient has changed in recent years.
- Discuss reasons why income distibution in the UK has stayed the same since 1991 despite a series of redistributive measures adopted by the Labour government since 1997.
The article linked below looks at the extent to which economic downturn and rising inequality are likely to affect crime levels in the UK. Traditionally the view has been that an economic downturn will raise crime, but is it necessarily the downturn that is causing the increased crime?
Consumed by crime Guardian (24/9/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain why an economic downturn may lead to increased levels of crime. |
| 2. |
Discuss the extent to which deregulation of markets may have exaggerated the relationship between crime and the level of economic growth. |
| 3. |
Assess the view espoused in the article that “a culture obsessed with material goods” and “competitive individualism” have led to stronger link between crime and economic growth. |
In Gordon Brown’s last budget as Chancellor he scrapped the 10p starting rate of taxation and this change came into effect for the 2008/9 tax year starting April 6th 2008. The move has been criticised by many Labour MPs and by poverty campaign groups as they argue that the scrapping of the rate will make some poor people worse off. They also argue that it will make it more difficult to meet the targets the government has set for reducing child poverty
Chancellor accused of widening poverty trap for poorer workers Times Online (14/03/08)
Benefit move to cut child poverty BBC News Online (12/03/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain what is meant by the poverty trap. |
| 2. |
Explain how the abolition of the 10p starting rate of tax is likely to increase inequality. |
| 3. |
Analyse two policies that are likely to reduce poverty. Then assess the extent to which these policies will also help reduce child poverty. |
Widening levels of income distribution have led to increased anger, according to a poll carried out for the Guardian by ICM. The articles linked to below look at this issue from a range of perspectives and using a series of regional case studies.
Anger at gap between rich and poor – ICM poll Guardian (20/2/08)
Diamonds for rich inside M25; hard times for the rest Guardian (21/1/08)
What the Romans did for us: introduce a North-South divide Guardian (21/1/08)
Where Burberry, Bentleys and bling prevail Guardian (21/1/08)
Dark reality hidden behind the picturesque scenery Guardian (21/1/08)
Mills and mail order: end of Empire marks another stage of decline Guardian (21/1/08)
Mind the gap Guardian (21/1/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Define the terms ‘Lorenz curve’ and Gini coefficient’. |
| 2. |
Using diagrams as appropriate show the changes that have taken place in income distribution in the UK in the past decade. |
| 3. |
Assess the principal causes of the growing North-South divide. |
| 4. |
Evaluate two policy options available to the government to reduce the widening gap in income distribution. |