The World Economic Forum has warned that 2009 may see a ‘hard landing’ for China. In the context of China, this does not necessarily mean a recession, but the WEF report does identify a significant possible slowdown in Chinese growth. Given that high growth in China has led to a high level of demand for imports from other countries, especailly for raw materials and semi-finished goods, any slowdown in Chinese economic growth may have significant repercussions in the rest of the world. Any hopes that China and the emerging economies may help the rest of the world through their recessions have been dashed by data showing that even exports from China have been falling in October and November 2008 by 2.2% and 2.8% respectively. This has meant that aggregate demand in China is falling and may cause further problems, not only for China, but for the whole world economy.
China slowdown ‘big global risk’ BBC News Online (13/1/09)
China’s exports in record decline BBC News Online (13/1/09)
China’s exports slump in sharpest decline in decade Times Online (13/1/09)
World Economic Forum highlights Chinese slump as biggest risk to global economy Telegraph (14/1/09)
Chinese exports fall by the biggest margin in a decade Telegraph (14/1/09)
Questions
- Explain the significance of the fall in Chinese exports for the Chinese economy.
- Analyse the principal causes of the fall in the level of Chinese exports.
- Assess how the changes in China’s trade position will affect the exchange rate of the Chinese currency, the yuan.
- Discuss policies that the Chinese government can implement to try to minimise the impact of the fall in exports on economic growth.
The surprise winner of the Nobel prize for economics this year was Paul Krugman: academic, writer and columnist for the New York Times. He is an economist with a gift for explaining economic principles and concepts in clear and simple terms. However, the award was given, not for his writing skills, but for his work on international trade theory and economic geography.
In praise of ….Paul Krugman Guardian (14/10/08)
Hotdog economics Guardian (13/10/08)
Nobel economics prize: And the winner is ….. Guardian (13/10/08)
Academic and columnist Paul Krugman wins Nobel Prize for Economics Times Online (13/10/08)
Bold strokes The Economist (16/10/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Write a brief paragraph summarising Krugman’s work on trade patterns. |
| 2. |
Define the term ‘economies of scale’. Explain why this concept was important to Krugman’s work on trade patterns. |
| 3. |
Assess the extent to which Krugman’s work has helped to explain the impact of free trade and globalisation. |
Given the interdependence of the global economy, the economic slowdown in the West is likely to have worldwide knock-on effects. How serious will these effects be for the emerging economies of South East Asia? The following articles consider this question.
The decoupling debate The Economist (6/3/08)
Can Asia escape the effects of the downturn in the West? Times Online (17/3/08)
Just enough power to save themselves Times Online (25/3/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the term emerging economy. |
| 2. |
Discuss the extent to which the economic performance of the emerging economies will help reduce the likelihood of recession in the UK. |
| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which the economic performance of the emerging economies is likely to be affected by recession in the USA. |
The article linked to below from the Guardian by Larry Elliott argues that there are significant global imbalances in the world economy and that the IMF has to an extent ignored these imbalances. He argues that the sub-prime mortgage crisis, exchange rate movements and the rapid rise in oil prices are creating significant problems for the world economy.
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the main global imbalances identified by Larry Elliott in the article. |
| 2. |
Analyse the likely impact of these imbalances on the global level of economic growth. |
| 3. |
Explain the statement in the article: “Like many other countries in the region, the lesson China learned from the Asian financial crisis of 1997 was that it needed to build up a war chest of foreign exchange reserves that could be deployed in the event of a speculative attack.” |
Globalisation has reduced the bargaining power of unskilled workers and pushed up inequality in many western countries, the OECD said, urging governments to improve their social safety nets.” With the gap between rich and poor widening once again, the media have been considering the impact of widening income and wealth distribution. The articles below look at this widening gap and also at the ways in which the rich are using their money.
Gap between rich and poor widens Guardian (20/6/07)
For the super-rich it’s all give and take – at record levels Guardian (20/6/07)
Looking after the super-rich BBC News Online (Evan Davis blog) (9/8/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Define what is meant by the terms (i) Lorenz curve and (ii) Gini coefficient. |
| 2. |
Using illustrations as appropriate, show how the Lorenz curve and the value of the Gini coefficient have changed in the past decade. |
| 3. |
Assess the likely impact on the major macroeconomic targets of growing income inequality. |
| 4. |
Discuss policies that the government could put in place to try to reduce the level of income inequality. |