Tag: exchange rate fluctuations

The Federal Reserve chair, Janet Yellen, has been giving strong signals recently that the US central bank will probably raise interest rates at its December 16 meeting or, if not then, early in 2016. ‘Ongoing gains in the labor market’ she said, ‘coupled with my judgement that longer-term inflation expectations remain reasonably well anchored, serve to bolster my confidence in a return of inflation to 2%.’ This, as for many other central banks, is the target rate of inflation.

In anticipation of a rise in US interest rates, the dollar has been appreciating. Its (nominal) exchange rate index has risen by 24% since April 2014 (see chart below).

In the light of the sluggish eurozone economy, the ECB president, Mario Draghi, has been taking a very different stance. He has indicated that he stands ready to cut interest rates further and increase quantitative easing. At the meeting on 3 December, the ECB did just that. It announced a further cut in the deposit rate, from –0.2 to –0.3 and an extension of the €60 billion per month QE programme from September 2016 to March 2017 (bringing the total by that time to €1.5 trillion – up from €1.1 trillion by September 2016).

Stock market investors had been expecting more, including an increase in the level of monthly asset purchases above €60 billion. Consequently stock markets fell. Both the German DAX and the French CAC 40 stock market indices fell by 3.6%. The euro also appreciated against the dollar by 2.7% on the day of the announcement. Nevertheless, since April 2014, the euro exchange rate index has fallen by 13%. Against the US dollar, the euro has depreciated by a massive 31%.

So what will be the consequences of the very different monetary policies being pursued by the Fed and the ECB? Are they simply the desirable responses to a lack of convergence of the economic performance of the US and eurozone economies? In other words, will they help to bring greater convergence between the two economies?

Or will the desirable effects of convergence be offset by other undesirable effects for the USA and the eurozone and also for the rest of the world?

Will huge amounts of dollar-denominated debt held by many emerging economies make it harder to service these debts with an appreciating dollar?
How much will US exporters suffer from the dollar’s rise and what will the US authorities do about it?
Will currency volatility lead to currency wars and, if so, what will be their economic effects?
Will the time lags involved in the effects of the continuing programme of QE in the eurozone eventually lead to overheating? Already euro money supply is rising, on both narrow and broad measures.

The following articles address these issues.

Articles

The Fed and the ECB: when monetary policy diverges The Guardian, Mohamed El-Erian (2/12/15)
European stocks slide after ECB dashes hopes of major QE expansion The Guardian, Heather Stewart and Graeme Wearden (3/12/15)
Mario Draghi riles Germany with QE overkill The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (3/12/15)
How the eurozone missed its shot at a recovery The Telegraph, Peter Spence (3/12/15)
Yellen Signals Economy Nearly Ready for First Interest-Rate Hike Bloomberg, Christopher Condon (3/12/15)

Exchange rate data
Effective exchange rate indices Bank for International Settlements
Exchange rates Bank of England

Questions

  1. What would be the beneficial effects to the US and eurozone economies of their respective monetary policies?
  2. Explain the exchange rate movements that have taken place between the euro and the dollar over the past 19 months. How do these relate to the various parts of the balance of payments accounts of the two economies?
  3. Is it possible for the USA to halt the rise in the dollar while at the same time raising interest rates? Explain.
  4. Why are some members of the ECB (e.g. the German and Dutch) against expanding QE? Assess their arguments.
  5. What will be the impact of US and eurozone monetary policies on emerging economies?
  6. What will be the impact of US and eurozone monetary policies on the UK?
  7. Why did the euro appreciate after the Mario Draghi’s press statement on 3 December? What has happened to the dollar/euro exchange rate since and why?

From the end of January to the beginning of March, the sterling exchange rate index fell by over 6% – from 81.7 to 76.5. Against the dollar, the fall has been even more dramatic, falling from $1.62 to $1.49 (a fall of 8%). What are the reason for this? And is the depreciation likely to continue? The following clip looks at what has been going on and whether the reasons are political, or whether there are other economic fundamentals that have contributed to sterling’s fall.

Stephanie Flanders on the pound BBC Politics Show, Jo Coburn and Stephanie Flanders (2/3/10)

Articles
One-way bet? BBC News blogs: Stephanomics, Stephanie Flanders (1/3/10)
Euro drops to lowest level in 10 months against dollar BBC News (2/3/10)
Fiscal and political fears hit sterling Financial Times, Peter Garnham (1/3/10)
Sterling’s slide is not just about polls Financial Times (2/3/10)
Sterling rout is more than a wobble over political uncertainty Guardian, Larry Elliott (1/3/10)
The pound is weighed down Guardian, Howard Davies (2/3/10)
Sterling jitters The Economist (1/3/10)
Sterling crisis might break Britain’s political and economic paralysis Telegraph, Jeremy Warner (3/3/10)

Questions

  1. What are the reasons for the depreciation of sterling between January and March 2010?
  2. Why was selling sterling a ‘one-way bet’ for speculators?
  3. Why might there have been ‘overshooting’ of the sterling exchange rate?
  4. Who gain and who lose from a depreciation of sterling?
  5. What is the likely effect of a depreciation of sterling on (a) inflation; (b) economic growth; (c) interest rates? Explain your answers.
  6. How do problems of government debt affect countries’ exchange rates?

The euro has climbed during March to a record high against both the dollar and the pound. The reluctance of the ECB to cut interest rates has simply served to strengthen this trend and it looks set to continue for a while.

Euro hits record highs Times Online (6/3/08)
Euro hits new highs as ECB rejects early cut in rates Times Online (7/3/08)
Sterling hits new low against euro Guardian (5/3/08)
Dollar slides to fresh euro low BBC News Online (14/3/08)

Questions

1. Explain the principal factors that have led to the appreciation of the euro against the dollar.
2. Discuss the likely impact of this appreciation on firms in (a) the eurozone and (b) America.
3. Examine whether the appreciation of the euro strengthens or weakens the case for those in the UK wanting to join the euro.