The November 2008 trade statistics have just been released and they show that the UK had the largest nominal trade deficit on record at £8.3 billion (up from 7.6 billion in October). This represents nearly 7 per cent of GDP, the highest since 1974.
Trade gap widens despite pound’s slump Independent (14/1/09)
UK trade deficit hits a record as weak pound fails to help Telegraph (13/1/09)
Britain’s trade deficit widens to new record Guardian (13/1/09)
UK Trade, November 2008 National Statistics (13/1/09)
Questions
- Why has the UK’s trade gap widened?
- How can the concepts of income and price elasticity of demand be used in analysing the causes of the widening deficit?
- Explain how these elasticity values are likely to differ in the short and long run.
- Explain the factors that will determine whether the trade gap will widen or narrow over the coming months.
The article below is an economic briefing from The Times, published to support the Bank of England’s Target 2.0 competition. It considers the importance of the exchange rate in determining the demand for imports and exports and therefore the impact that exchange rate changes are likely to have on aggregate demand.
Economic briefing: exchange rate is crucial to export demand and influences inflation Times Online (20/10/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain how import prices and export prices change in response to a fall in the value of sterling. |
| 2. |
Define the terms (a) price elasticity of demand for imports and (b) price elasticity of demand for exports. |
| 3. |
With reference to your answers to questions 1 and 2, assess how the balance of payments will change in response to a fall in the value of sterling. What is the relevance of the Marshall-Lerner condition to these changes? |
In complete contrast to the holidaying habits of the Blair family, Gordon Brown chose to take his holiday this year in Weymouth on the Dorset Coast. Is he setting us a good example? Should we all be holidaying at home to support the UK economy? In the article below, David Smith looks at the impact of holidaying abroad on the UK balance of payments.
Holiday at home and do your bit for Blighty Times Online (26/8/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Examine the impact of growing overseas travel on the UK balance of payments. |
| 2. |
Assess the impact of a reduced tourism deficit on the rest of the UK economy. |
| 3. |
Discuss policies that the government could adopt to help encourage a reduction in the balance of payments deficit on tourism. |
In March 2007, the pound reached a record high against the dollar. This made it an excellent time for UK tourists to visit the USA with prices appearing relatively low thanks to the exchange rate. These exchange rate values also affected the balance of payments of both the USA and the UK and the article below looks at the economic impact of the high exchange rate against the dollar.
Why everything’s almost free in America (and why it won’t last) Guardian
(23/4/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the principal reasons for the change that has taken place in the exchange rate in recent years. |
| 2. |
“On a PPP basis, a pound should buy $1.60”. Explain what is meant by this statement. |
| 3. |
“My bet is that within a year the rate will be closer to $1.60 than $2. Maybe a lot closer.” Assess the impact of this possible outcome on economic growth and inflation in the UK. |
| 4. |
Examine the likely impact of the high exchange rate on the balance of payments situation of (a) the USA and (b) the UK. |
It was over 25 years ago that £1 was worth more than $2 on the foreign exchange markets, but that important psychological barrier was broken again this month as the value of sterling crept above $2 on foreign exchange markets. The continuing weakness of the dollar is making life difficult for UK exporters and also for firms in the Eurozone as the weakness in the dollar also affects the Euro and other major currencies.
Pound reaches 26-year dollar high BBC News Online (18/4/07)
UK pound goes through $2 barrier BBC News Online (17/4/07)
Yen hits record low against euro BBC News Online (16/4/07)
Pound hits 25-year dollar high Guardian (18/4/07)
British pound breaks through $2 International Herald Tribune (17/4/07)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the impact of the weak value of the dollar on international markets on the price of UK imports and exports. |
| 2. |
Assess the likely impact of the high value of sterling on the major UK economic targets. |
| 3. |
Assess policies that the government could use to try to reduce the value of sterling against the dollar if they chose to. |