The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, recently talked about the end of the ‘nice’ decade. He was not using this in its normal sense, but was taking about a ‘non-inflationary, consistently expansionary’ decade of economic growth. Economists and journalists have been busy suggesting other acronyms for the situation that we face now including VILE (‘volatile inflation, less expansionary’) and the less generous CRAP (close to recession, absent a policy’). So are we facing a new more inflationary and less stable period of economic development? Is the ‘nice’ period really over?
Recession alert as Brown fights back Guardian (15/5/08)
‘It’s things outside the Bank’s control that are going up’ Guardian (14/5/08) (Podcast)
Nasty truth behind those nice headlines Times Online (19/5/08)
Inflation prospects will make a master letter writer out of Mervyn King Times Online (13/5/08)
Which way from the edge of the abyss? Guardian (25/4/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the main factors that have led to the past decade being a ‘NICE’ one. |
| 2. |
Assess the extent to which we are moving into a ‘VILE’ period . |
| 3. |
Evaluate two policies that the government could adopt to try to avoid the UK economy moving into a VILE period. |
To try to help reduce inflation, the People’s Bank of China (the central bank of China) has ordered banks to hold a greater proportion of their assets as cash. These higher reserve requirements will limit the ability of the banks to create deposits and is a form of monetary policy intended to support the fight against inflation. However, how successful is this likely to be given the rapid economic growth being experienced by China?
China lifts reserve requirements for banks Times Online (12/5/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain how a higher reserve requirements helps reduce inflation. |
| 2. |
Evaluate two policies that the central bank could adopt, other than raising reserve requirements to help control inflation in China. |
| 3. |
“As underlying inflationary pressures remain undiminished, it is vital for the government to keep its tightening policy stance to anchor inflationary expectations.” Discuss the extent to which a tightening policy stance will influence inflationary and other expectations. |
In recent years Labour has taken what might be described as a light-touch on regulation of City firms and financial institutions. In the article below the economics editor of the Guardian, Larry Elliott, argues that this ‘pact with the devil’ might have come back to haunt Gordon Brown as the impact of the global credit crunch continues to dominate economic news.
Brown damned by his Faustian pact Guardian (12/5/08)
Questions
| 1. |
What form has regulation of the financial sector taken under the Labour government? |
| 2. |
Assess the extent to which this regulatory approach could be considered a ‘Faustian bargain’. |
| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which tighter regulation of financial markets might have helped the UK economy avoid the impact of the global credit crunch. |
The Phillips Machine may, in this era of super-computers modelling the economy, appear an outdated artefact. However, when it was first unveiled at the London School of Economics in 1949 it caused a sensation. The Phillips Machine is a model of the economy which uses water, pumps, valves and, in the case of the original, an electric motor scavenged from the windscreen wiper of a Lancaster bomber. For some photos of a Phillips Machine at the Science Museum, follow the links below:
Phillip’s Economic Computer (1949)
Enginuity article (Cambridge Engineering Department)
The computer model that once explained the British economy Guardian (8/5/08)
The computer model that once explained the British economy Guardian (8/5/08) (Cartoon)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain what is meant by the term ‘economic model’. |
| 2. |
What were the limitations of the Phillips machine? Assess whether the Phillips machine could be of value to modern economists. |
| 3. |
Discuss the value of economic models to policy makers when formulating economic policy. |
The prospect of a severe recession in America has inevitably drawn parallels in the media with the Great Depression of 1929. The parallel may not be entirely appropriate in terms of scale and severity, but what lessons are there that can be learnt from the Great Depression?
Credit crunch: risk-taking Times Online (23/3/08)
America gets depressed by thoughts of 1929 revisited Times Online (23/3/08)
Lessons learnt from Great Depression Times Online (25/3/08)
Questions
| 1. |
Explain the principal causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s. |
| 2. |
Assess the parallels between the current economic situation in America and the situation preceding the Great Depression in 1929.
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| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which the recent loosening of monetary and fiscal policy in America will help reduce the likelihood of recession. |