Many commentators (and politicians) have suggested that the most painless route out of the recession is for us all to shop until we drop. If we can prevent consumer spending from falling too far then this may help maintain oonsumer confidence and therefore aggregate demand. So, is it our patriotic duty to shop? Should we all be out there helping in our own small way to prevent recession, or will more shopping just land us even further in debt and therefore make us worse off? The articles linked to below look at various aspects of the ‘shopping debate’ and consider whether retail therapy is also economic therapy.
Your country needs you … to buy some underpants Guardian (20/12/08)
Beyond retail therapy Guardian (8/1/09)
Shopping is no panacea for a broken economy Guardian (28/12/08)
High street counter-offensive Guardian (31/12/08)
Should shopping be a patriotic duty? BBC News Online (19/12/08)
Questions
- How could the need both to reduce debt and to maintain aggregate demand be reconciled?
- Discuss the extent to which an increase in consumer expenditure is (a) a necessary and (b) a sufficient condition for a recovery of the economy?
- To what extent will long-term aggregate supply depend on the maintenance of aggregate demand?
- If shopping is your patriotic duty, what types of shopping would be best for the country?
It is something of a media sport in these recessionary times to find ‘economic scapegoats’. One minute the recession is the fault of the banks and their poor lending practices; the next minute it is the fault of the media themselves, who are constantly reporting doom and gloom; the next minute it is the fault of the politicians, who have failed to react quickly enough to the economic uncertainties; the list goes on! However, the one group that is rarely blamed is ‘us’ – the consumers. Given that the state of the economy is the outcome of our collective decisions, it could be said that we have no real right to complain, as our collective lack of confidence could be what has caused much of the current situation. As James Meek puts it in the article below:
What makes the situation peculiar is that the crisis that threatens us also seems to be us; we are simultaneously menaced by the wave, and exist as elements of the wave. After all, that is what an economic crisis is: the sum of all the actions of billions of people around the world, deciding whether to lend or hoard, borrow or save, sell or buy, move or stay, hire or fire, study or look for work, be pessimistic or optimistic.
To live in remarkable times Guardian (5/1/09)
Questions
- Explain how changes in consumer confidence can affect the level of aggregate demand.
- Examine the importance of consumer confidence in determining the length and depth of a recession.
- Discuss policies that the government can implement to try to boost consumer confidence.
- Analyse the impact on an economy of a prolonged period of poor consumer confidence.
The current financial crisis had led to Keynesian theory coming back into fashion. Governments all around the world have put in place a significant fiscal and monetary stimulus to try to mitigate the impact of the downturn. But is this really Keynesian policy at work? Keynes argued for permanent and tough controls on the financial sector to allow the government to pursue a policy of full employment. It would be difficult that current policies are therefore pure Keynesian policies, so is there an economic theory vacuum with market economics discredited, but Keynesian economics not really taking its place? The article below looks at how economic theory has changed in recent months and considers whether we need a ‘new’ Keynes.
Wanted: the Keynes for our times Guardian (22/12/08)
Questions
- Explain the difference between classical and Keynesian beliefs with respect to government intervention in the ecoomy.
- Analyse the extent to which the recent policy stimulus has been Keynesian in nature.
- Discuss the changes that have taken place in economic policy during 2008/9 in the context of economic theory.
The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, announced in January that the government wanted three-year pay deals with public-sector workers. He argued that this would help with planning for public-sector finances. But many commentators likened it to the pay freezes and incomes policies of 30 years ago. The articles linked to below from the Guardian look at the similarities between the economic situation now and 30 years ago.
| Questions |
| 1. |
Assess the likely success of a three-year pay deal in keeping the level of public-sector pay under control. |
| 2. |
“The story of the past 32 years is of how three big factors – privatisation, globalisation and curbs on the power of trade unions – have made it far harder for pay bargainers to use low levels of unemployment to win hefty pay awards.”Explain how these factors have changed the balance of power in the labour market. Discuss the extent to which this assertion is true. |
| 3. |
Discuss the extent to which the economic situation in 2008 is similar to that in the 1970s. |
Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2008. He won the prize for his analysis of trade patterns and location of economic activity, but he is also well known in academic circles for his work on international finance. In the article below, he looks at the foundations of the current financial crisis. He explains the history of the crisis, the action that has been taken by governments around the world, the likely success of the policies and also the impact of the crisis on the real economy. This is perhaps the issue that is of most concern to us as economists. With recession having taken a grip on many countries, it is important for governments to understand the root causes of the crisis to ensure that their policies address these. The article is an edited extract from The Return of Depression Economics and The Crisis of 2008, by Paul Krugman.
We all go together when we go Guardian (6/12/08)
Questions
- Examine the role of the US housing market in the origins of the current financial crisis.
- What is meant by the ‘shadow banking system’? How does the regulatory approach to the shadow banking system differ from that of the mainstream banking system?
- “What’s really worrying is the loss of policy traction: the economy is stalling despite repeated efforts by policy-makers to get it going again.” What does Krugman mean by policy traction? Discuss the possible causes of this policy traction.
- Explain why Krugman believes that the financial rescue package will not be sufficient to turn the US economy around.
- Assess Krugman’s argument that the only way out of the crisis is a “good old Keynesian fiscal stimulus”..