The following articles look at a recently published book by George Akerlof of the University of California, Berkeley, and Robert Shiller of Yale. They examine the role of what Keynes called ‘animal spirits’ and is the title of the book.
The motivation to make economic decisions (to buy, to sell, to invest, etc) may not be ‘rational’ in the sense of carefully weighing up marginal costs and marginal benefits. Rather it can be one of over-optimism in good times or over-pessimism in bad times. Just as individuals have ‘mood swings’, so there can be collective mood swings too. After all, confidence, or lack of it, is contagious. This motivation that drives people to action is what is meant by animal spirits.
But are animal spirits a blessing to be nurtured or a curse to be reined in? Should governments seek to constrain them?
An economic bestiary The Economist (26/3/09)
Good Government and Animal Spirits Wall Street Journal (23/4/09)
Irrational Exuberance New York Times (17/4/09)
Animal Spirits: A Q&A With George Akerlof Freakonomics: New York Times blog (30/4/09)
Questions
- Describe what is meant by ‘animal spirits’ and their effects on human behaviour.
- Why may animal spirits make economies less stable?
- How may animal spirits help to explain exchange rate overshooting?
- Discuss whether governments should seek to constrain animal spirits and make people more ‘rational’? Also consider what methods governments could/should use to do this?
The recession of the past few months has taken its toll on organic farmers. Until recently, the industry was booming as consumers switched to products perceived as greener, healthier and more ethically produced. Now, as many consumers are feeling the pinch, they are switching to cheaper foodstuffs. The resulting decline in demand for organic food has turned profit into loss for many organic farmers. According to the first of the linked articles below, at least two organic farmers are leaving the movement each week.
But what will happen as the economy recovers and people start turning back to organic products? Given that it takes some two years to convert to organic standards, there could be supply shortages next year.
As UK shoppers tighten their belts, organic farmers feel the squeeze Guardian (11/4/09)
United Kingdom-Organic slowdown Farming UK (12/4/09)
Can the organics survive the current economy? Limerick Post (10/4/09)
Questions
- How close to perfect competition is the market for organic foods?
- What determines whether an organic farmer should continue in the market even though a loss is being made?
- What can you conclude about the income and price elasticities of demand for organic produce and the cross-price elasticity of demand for organic food with eating out?
- What is likely to happen to the market for organic food over the next two years?
The European Commission is concerned that the economic downturn may have put the livelihoods of dairy farmers at risk. To try to prevent any problems for farmers, the Commission has re-introduced export subsidies for dairy products. The last time subsidies were paid to dairy farmers was June 2007 and the EU insists that the payment will meet World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
EU gives boost to dairy exports BBC News Online (23/1/09)
Questions
- Using diagrams as appropriate, illustrate the impact of the EU export subsidies on the market for milk.
- Additional support for dairy farmers comes in the form of EU intervention – European Commission purchases of surplus produce at a guaranteed price. Using diagrams as appropriate, illustrate and explain how this ‘guaranteed price’ scheme will work.
- Explain the role of the WTO in determining world trade rules.
- Discuss the likely reaction of other countries to the EU’s payment of export subsidies to dairy farmers.
Somali pirates have been much in the news recently with their high profile captures of oil tankers and other ships. The impact on shipping in the area is clear and this has disrupted trade in the region, but an unforeseen impact has been on the total worldwide catch of tuna. The Indian Ocean is one of the richest sources of tuna in the world and the pirate activity has led to a fall of around 30% in the total tuna catch.
Somali piracy ‘reduces tuna haul’ BBC News Online (22/1/09)
Questions
- Using diagrams as appropriate, show the impact of Somali pirate activity on the market for tuna.
- Suggest likely values for the price elasticity of demand and supply of tuna. Analyse the extent to which these values are likely to affect the price rise in the market for tuna.
- What substitutes are available for tuna? Assess the extent to which the availability of substitutes will affect the rise in the price of tuna.
Peak oil is an important concept for the oil market. Peak oil is the moment in time at which the maximum extraction rate of oil is reached. From this moment on, production will decline. Basic economics tells us that the oil price will tend to rise from then on (unless demand were to fall faster), but the complexities of the demand and supply for oil dictate that there will not be a simple inverse relationship between the supply of oil and the price. In the articles below George Monbiot interviews Faith Birol, the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency and the Asia Times article looks at the extent to which world economies rely on oil for energy and other needs. Oil prices may be low at the moment and the market may be awash with excess oil and not enough demand for it, but this is a short term phenomenon; there is little doubt about the long-term direction of the price.
When will the oil run out? Guardian (15/12/08)
Be careful what you wish for Asia Times (15/1/09)
Questions
- Write a short paragraph explaining what is meant by peak oil.
- Using diagrams as appropriate, explain the changes that took place in the oil price in the last six months of 2008.
- Analyse the likely impact on the UK economy of arriving at peak oil output in (a) the short term and (b) the long term.
- Discuss when peak oil is likely to arrive.