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Posts Tagged ‘sterling exchange rates’

A falling pound – rebalancing the balance of payments

In a recent blog, Falling sterling – bad for some; good for others, we looked at the depreciation of sterling following the Brexit vote. We saw how it will have beneficial effects for some, such as exporters, and adverse effects for others, such as consumers having to pay a higher price for imports and foreign holidays. The article linked below examines these effects in more depth.

Just how much the quantity of exports will increase depends on two main things. The first is the amount by which the foreign currency price falls. This depends on what exporters choose to do. Say the pound falls from €1.30 to €1.18. Do exporters who had previously sold a product selling in the UK for £100 and in the eurozone for €130, now reduce the euro price to €118? Or do they put it down by less – say, to €125, thereby earning £105.93 (£(125/1.18)). Their sales would increase by less, but their profit margin would rise.

The second is the foreign currency price elasticity of demand for exports in the foreign markets. The more elastic it is, the more exports will rise for any given euro price reduction.

It is similar with imports. How much the sales of these fall depends again on two main things. The first is the amount by which the importing companies are prepared to raise sterling prices. Again assume that the pound falls from €1.30 to €1.18 – in other words, the euro rises from 76.92p (£1/1.3) to 84.75p (£1/1.18). What happens to the price of an import to the UK from the eurozone whose euro price is €100? Does the importer raise the price from £76.92 to £84.75, or by less than that, being prepared to accept a smaller profit margin?

The second is the sterling price elasticity of demand for imports in the UK. The more elastic it is, the more imports will fall and, probably, the more the importer will be prepared to limit the sterling price increase.

The article also looks at the effect on aggregate demand. As we saw in the previous blog, a depreciation boosts aggregate demand by increasing exports and curbing imports. The effects of this rise in aggregate demand depends on the degree of slack in the economy and the extent, therefore, that (a) exporters and those producing import substitutes can respond in terms of high production and employment and (b) other sectors can produce more as multiplier effects play out.

Finally, the article looks at the effect of the depreciation of sterling on asset prices. UK assets will be worth less in foreign currency terms; foreign assets will be worth more in sterling. Just how much the prices of internationally traded assets, such as shares and some property, will change depends, again, on their price elasticities of demand. In terms of assets, there has been a gain to UK balance sheets from the depreciation. As Roger Bootle says:

Whereas the overwhelming majority of the UK’s liabilities to foreigners are denominated in sterling, the overwhelming bulk of our assets abroad are denominated in foreign currency. So the lower pound has raised the sterling value of our overseas assets while leaving the sterling value of our liabilities more or less unchanged.

Article
How a lower pound will help us to escape cloud cuckoo land, The Telegraph, Roger Bootle (31/7/16)

Questions

  1. What determines the amount that exporters from the UK adjust the foreign currency price of their exports following a depreciation of sterling?
  2. What determines the amount by which importers to the UK adjust the sterling price of their products following a depreciation of sterling?
  3. What determines the amount by which sterling will depreciate over the coming months?
  4. Distinguish between stabilising and destabilising speculation? How does this apply to exchange rates and what determines the likelihood of there being destabilising speculation against sterling exchange rates?
  5. How is UK inflation likely to be affected by a depreciation of sterling?
  6. Why does Roger Bootle believe that the UK has been living in ‘cloud cuckoo land’ with respect to exchange rates?
  7. Why has the UK managed to sustain a large current account deficit over so many years?
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Falling sterling – bad for some; good for others

Since the Brexit vote in the referendum, sterling has been falling. It is now at a 31-year low against the US dollar. From 23 June to 6 July it depreciated by 12.9% against the US dollar, 10.7% against the euro and 17.0% against the yen. The trade-weighted sterling exchange rate index depreciated by 11.6%.

Why has this happened? Partly it reflects a decline in confidence in the UK economy by investors; partly it is in response to policy measures, actual and anticipated, by the Bank of England.

As far as investors are concerned, the anticipation is that there will be net direct investment outflows from the UK. This is because some companies in the UK are considering relocating part or all of their business from the UK to elsewhere in Europe. For example, EasyJet is drawing up plans to move its headquarters to continental Europe. It is also because investors believe that foreign direct investment in the UK is likely to fall as companies prefer to invest elsewhere, such as Ireland or Germany.

Thus although the effect of net direct investment outflows (or reductions in net inflows) will be on the long-term investment part of the financial account of the balance of payments, the immediate effect is felt on the short-term financial flows part of the account as investors anticipate such moves and the consequent fall in sterling.

As far as monetary policy is concerned, the fall in sterling is in response to four things announced or signalled by Mark Carney at recent news conferences (see Monetary and fiscal policies – a U-turn or keeping the economy on track?).

First is the anticipated fall in Bank Rate at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on 13/14 July. Second is the possibility of further quantitative easing (QE). Third is an additional £250bn of liquidity that the Bank is prepared to provide through its normal open-market operations. Fourth is the easing of capital requirements on banks (reducing the countercyclical buffer from 0.5% to 0%), which would allow additional lending by banks of up to £150bn.

Lower interest rates, additional liquidity and further QE would all increase the supply of sterling on the foreign exchange markets. The anticipation of this, plus the anticipation of lower interest rates, would decrease the demand for sterling. The effect of these supply and demand changes is a fall in the exchange rate.

But is a fall in the exchange rate a ‘good thing’? As far as consumers are concerned, the answer is no. Imports will be more expensive, as will foreign holidays. People’s pounds will buy less of things priced in foreign currency and thus people will be poorer.

As far as exporters are concerned, however, the foreign currency they earn will exchange into more pounds than before. Their sterling revenues, therefore, are likely to increase. They might also choose to reduce the foreign currency price of exports, thereby increasing the quantity sold – the amount depending on the price elasticity of demand. The increase in exports and reduction in imports will help to reduce the current account deficit and also boost aggregate demand.

Articles
Pound slumps to 31-year low following Brexit vote The Guardian, Katie Allen , Jill Treanor and Simon Goodley (24/6/16)
Sterling’s post-Brexit fall is biggest loss in a hard currency Reuters, Jamie McGeever (7/7/16)
Brexit Accelerates the British Pound’s 100 Years of Debasement Bloomberg, Simon Kennedy and Lukanyo Mnyanda (5/7/16)
Pound sterling falls below $1.31 hitting new 31-year low Independent, Hazel Sheffield (5/7/16)
Viewpoints: How low will sterling go? BBC News, Leisha Chi (6/7/16)
How low will the pound fall? Financial Times (7/7/16)
Allianz’s El-Erian says UK must urgently get its act together or dollar parity could beckon Reuters, Guy Faulconbridge (7/7/16)
What does a falling pound mean for the British economy? The Telegraph, Peter Spence (6/7/16)

Data
Spot exchange rates: Statistical Interactive Database – interest & exchange rates data Bank of England

Questions

  1. What determines how much the exchange rate depreciates for a given shift in the demand for sterling or the supply of sterling?
  2. Why might the short-term effects on exchange rates of the Brexit vote be different from the long-term effects?
  3. Why has the pound depreciated by different amounts against different currencies?
  4. What are likely to be the effects on the financial and current accounts of the balance of payments of the Bank of England’s measures?
  5. Find out what has happened to business confidence since the Brexit vote. What effect does the level of confidence have on the exchange rate and why?
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Brexit fears

On 20 February, the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced the date for the referendum on whether the UK should remain in or leave the EU. It will be on 23 June. The announcement followed a deal with EU leaders over terms of UK membership of the EU. He will argue strongly in favour of staying in the EU, supported by many in his cabinet – but not all.

Two days later, Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, said that he would be campaigning for the UK to leave the EU.

In the meantime, Mr Johnson’s announcement, the stance of various politicians and predictions of the outcome of the referendum are having effects on markets.

One such effect is on the foreign exchange market. As the Telegraph article below states:

The pound suffered its biggest drop against the dollar in seven years after London Mayor Boris Johnson said he will campaign for Britain to leave the European Union ['Brexit'].

Sterling fell by as much as 2.12pc to $1.4101 against the dollar on Monday afternoon, putting it on course for the biggest one day drop since February 2009. Experts said the influential Mayor’s decision made a British exit from the bloc more likely.

The pound also fell by as much as 1.2pc to €1.2786 against the euro and hit a two-year low against Japan’s yen.

This follows depreciation that has already taken place this year as predictions of possible Brexit have grown. The chart shows that from the start of the year to 23 February the sterling trade weighted index fell by 5.3% (click here for a PowerPoint).

But why has sterling depreciated so rapidly? How does this reflect people’s concerns about the effect of Brexit on the balance of payments and business more generally? Read the articles and try answering the questions below.

Articles
Pound in Worst Day Since Banking Crisis as `Brexit’ Fears Bite Bloomberg, Eshe Nelson (21/2/16)
Pound hits 7-year low on Brexit fears Finiancial Times, Michael Hunter and Peter Wells (22/2/16)
Pound in freefall as Boris Johnson sparks Brexit fears The Telegraph, Szu Ping Chan (22/2/16)
Pound falls below $1.39 as economists warn Brexit could hammer households The Telegraph, Peter Spence (24/2/16)
Why is the pound falling and what does it mean for households and businesses? The Telegraph, Szu Ping Chan (23/2/16)
Pound heading for biggest one-day fall since 2009 on Brexit fears BBC News (22/2/16)
Cameron tries to sell EU deal after London mayor backs Brexit Euronews, Guy Faulconbridge and Michael Holden (22/2/16)
EU referendum: Sterling suffers biggest fall since 2010 after Boris Johnson backs Brexit International Business Times, Dan Cancian (22/2/16)

Exchange rate data
Spot exchange rates against £ sterling Bank of England

Questions

  1. What are the details of the deal negotiated by David Cameron over the UK’s membership of the EU?
  2. Why did sterling depreciate in (a) the run-up to the deal on UK EU membership and (b) after the announcement of the date of the referendum?
  3. Why did the FTSE100 rise on the first trading day after the Prime Minister’s announcement?
  4. What is the relationship between the balance of trade and the exchange rate?
  5. What are meant by the ‘six-month implied volatility in sterling/dollar’ and the ‘six-month risk reversals’?
  6. Why is it difficult to estimate the effect of leaving the EU on the UK’s balance of trade?
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Pound appreciates as chances of more QE decline

In an interview with the Yorkshire Post, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said that under current circumstances he did not feel that further quantitative easing was justified. He said:

My personal view is, given the recovery has strengthened and broadened, I don’t see a case for quantitative easing and I have not supported it.

In response to his speech, the pound strengthened against the dollar. It appreciated by just over 1 cent, or 0.7%. But why should the likelihood of no further quantitative easing lead to a strengthening of the pound?

The answer lies with people’s anticipation of future interest rates. If there is no further increase in money supply through QE, interest rates are likely to rise as the economy recovers and thus the demand for money rises. A rise in interest rates, in turn, is likely to lead to an inflow of finance into the country, thereby boosting the financial account of the balance of payments. The increased demand for sterling will tend to drive up the exchange rate.

However, an increase in aggregate demand will result in an increase in imports and a likely increase in the balance of trade deficit. Indeed, in July (the latest figures available) the balance of trade deficit rose to £3.085bn from £1.256bn in June. As recovery continues, the balance of trade deficit is likely to deteriorate further. Other things being equal, this would lead to a depreciation of the pound.

So if the pound appreciates, this suggests that the effect on the financial account is bigger than the effect on the current account – or is anticipated to be so. In fact, given the huge volumes of short-term capital that move across the foreign exchanges each day, financial account effects of interest rate changes – actual or anticipated – generally outweigh current account effects.

Articles
Yorkshire can reap benefits from turnaround says Mark Carney Yorkshire Post (27/9/13)
Sterling Jumps as BOE Chief Signals No More Bond Buying Wall Street Journal, Nick Cawley and Jason Douglas (27/9/13)
Carney’s Northern Exposure Sends Sterling Soaring Wall Street Journal, David Cottle (27/9/13)
Pound Gains as Carney Sees No Case for QE, Confidence Improves Bloomberg, Anchalee Worrachate & David Goodman (28/9/13)
Exchange Rate Bounces as Strong UK Data Supports Sterling FCF (Future Currency Forecast), Laura Parsons (30/9/13)
Currency briefing: What if the pound sterling has been overbought? iNVEZZ, Tsvyata Petkova (30/9/13)
Pound rises after Carney rejects increasing QE BBC News (27/9/13)
Pound Rises for Fourth Day Versus Euro on Housing, Mortgage Data Bloomberg, Emma Charlton (30/9/13)

Data
$ per £ exchange rate (latest month) XE (You can access other periods and currencies)
Effective exchange rate indices (nominal and real) Bank for International Settlements
Balance of Payments, Q2 2013 Dataset ONS

Questions

  1. Explain how quantitative easing affects exchange rates.
  2. What is happening concerning quantitative easing in the USA? How is this likely to affect the exchange rate of the US dollar to sterling; other currencies to sterling?
  3. Why may an increase in the balance of trade deficit lead directly to an appreciation of the exchange rate?
  4. Why is an anticipation of a policy change likely to have more of an effect on exchange rates than the actual policy change itself? Why, indeed, may a policy change have the reverse effect once it is implemented?
  5. Under what circumstances may speculation against exchange rate changes be (a) stabilising; (b) destabilising?
  6. How is quantitative easing (or an anticipation of it) likely to affect each of the main components of the current and financial accounts of the balance of payments?
  7. For what reasons might sterling have been ‘overbought’ and hence be overvalued?
  8. What is meant by the real exchange rate (REER)? Why may reference to the REER suggest that sterling is not currently overvalued?
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