There is no bigger purchase than a house. Ask most individuals who have at some point in their life purchased a house and they will tell you about the considerable time they devoted to making the decision to purchase. It’s not like rushing to a supermarket and purchasing a kilo of sugar. The decision to purchase a property is not taken lightly: the mood music has to be right. Consumer confidence is therefore an important ingredient for an active housing market. The latest mortgage approval data from the Bank of England suggest the music is not right!
April’s mortgage approval numbers continue to demonstrate the on-going fragility of the UK housing market and, in turn, of British households. April saw 45,166 mortgages approved for house purchase. What makes this figure particularly noteworthy is that it is the lowest level recorded in the month of April since the Bank of England figures started back in 1993. It is also 9% lower than April 2010. Some commentators have argued that the number of public holidays in April contributed to the fall in activity. But, 138,756 approvals over the period from February to April was 4.3% lower than over the corresponding period last year. This would suggest that we can’t lay the blame for low levels of mortgage approvals solely on hot cross buns and Kate Middleton!
The weakness in mortgage approvals data has been regular news for some time. Over the past two years the number of approvals per month has been close to 50K compared to about 89K over the past ten years. What makes the latest figures troubling is that there is no indication of recovery any time soon. Rather, the figures show that housing demand may be weakening yet again. If we exclude December’s low of 42,772, when housing market activity was hit by the harsh winter conditions, April’s figure is the lowest since March 2009.
The weakness in the demand for housing can in large part be attributed to the poor mood music: economic growth remains fragile, average real incomes have been declining and unemployment levels are expected to rise over the coming months. Furthermore, households are naturally reluctant to purchase property is they think house prices may fall further. All in all, we can expect the weakness in housing demand to persist for some time. The question seems to be one of just how weak housing demand will be. The next few months promise to be very interesting to say the least. Keep listening to the music!
Articles
UK mortgage approvals hit record low in April Telegraph, Emma Rowley and Harry Wilson (2/6/11)
Mortgage approvals fall to record April low Guardian, Mark King (1/6/11)
Mortgage approvals fall to two-year low Financial Times, Norma Cohen (1/6/11)
Mortgage approvals hit new low, Bank of England reports BBC News (1/6/11)
UK mortgage approvals drop to lowest in four months on lower confidence Bloomberg, Scott Hamilton (1/6/11) )
Pound drops on weak UK manufacturing PMI and mortgage approvals data RTT News (6/1/11)
Data
Mortgage approval numbers and other lending data are available from the Bank of England’s statistics publication, Monetary and Financial Statistics (Bankstats) (See Table A5.4.)
Questions
- How sensitive do you think mortgage approval numbers are likely to be both current and future economic conditions?
- Are there any other types of purchases which households make which you might expect to be especially sensitive to economic conditions?
- Is it just the weakness in the demand for housing which explains the current low levels of mortgage approvals? Explain your answer
- Do weak mortgage approval numbers mean that we should expect house prices to fall in the months ahead? Use demand and supply diagrams to help explain your answer.
The outbreak of E. Coli has already cost lives, but it is also costing livelihoods of farmers who rely on producing and selling agricultural produce. Immediately following the outbreak in Germany, the blame was put on Spanish producers of cucumbers, which lead to the destruction of tens of thousands of kilos of fresh produce, costing Spain an estimated £177m per week in sales. Although Spain is not the source of the outbreak, the problem has not disappeared and will now affect the whole of Europe: at least until the source is identified. Countries such as Spain, France and Germany are big exporters to Russia and these countries are likely to take a big hit with the Russian health service banning imports of EU vegetables. The impact of this action (together with other countries implementing similar strategies) has not only affected agricultural producers, but is also having wider impacts on other sectors, including transportation. If no-one wants to buy the products, there’s very little use for the companies and indeed drivers to deliver them.
The Spanish economy will be looking for compensation from Germany for the losses they incurred, when sales of fruit and vegetables practically ceased following Germany’s initial accusation. As the Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero said:
“We acted as we had to, and we are going to get reparations and the return of Spanish products to their rightful place. … I believe that any other interpretation or any effort to politicise the huge mistake made by the German authorities is totally unfair.”
The effects of this outbreak have spread to UK supermarkets and producers. The former have reported a slight drop in sales of fruit and vegetables, but have not taken this opportunity to drop the prices paid to British growers, which is particularly important for cucumber producers, given the high production costs. Sarah Pettitt of the National Farmers Union said she was ‘extremely encouraged to hear that the major supermarkets … are not using this unfortunate situation as an excuse to drop prices to British growers.’ In fact some believe that the outbreak could be good for UK producers, as consumers increasingly turn to home-produced products. While the source of the outbreak remains unknown, so does the future of agricultural producers throughout Europe, as well as all those that have any dependence on this huge industry.
E. Coli outbreak: UK cases rise to 11 BBC News (4/6/11)
E coli source hunted as growers fear sales slump Guardian, Robin McKie (4/6/11)
Farmers reel as outbreak hits demand Financial Times, Matt Steinglass and Victor Mallet (3/6/11)
Spain seeks compensation for E. Coli blame BBC News (3/6/11)
E.Coli: Economic impact on the agriculture industry BBC News, Richard Anderson (3/6/11)
Spain says Germany mulls EU aid over cucumber slur Associated Press (3/6/11)
Rose Prince: Cucumbers, diet and Prof Moth Telegraph, Rose Prince (4/6/11)
Questions
- Why have cucumber producers been experiencing falling profit margins in recent years?
- Could the outbreak of E Coli bring any benefits to the UK economy?
- What are the costs and benefits to Russian consumers and producers from the protectionists measures that have been imposed on EU imports of fruit and vegetables?
- Which sectors within the European market are likely to experience the biggest problems?
- Explain why the Chairman of the National Farmers Union was ‘encouraged to hear that the major supermarkets … are not using this unfortunate situation as an excuse to drop prices to British growers’. Why would supermarkets have an incentive to do this?
Anyone investing in commodities over the past few weeks will have been in for a bumpy ride. During the first part of 2011, commodity prices have soared (see A perfect storm brewing?). This has fuelled inflation and has caused the Bank of England to revise upwards its forecast for inflation (see Busy doing nothing see also Prospects for Inflation).
But then in the first week of May, commodity prices plumetted. On the 5 May, oil prices fell by 7.9% – their largest daily amount since January 2009. Between 28 April and 6 May silver prices fell from $48.35 per ounce to just over $33.60 per ounce – a fall of over 30%. And it was the same with many other commodities – metals, minerals, agricultural raw materials and foodstuffs.
Many financial institutions, companies and individuals speculate in commodities, hoping to make money buy buying at a low price and selling at a high price. When successful, speculators can make large percentage gains in a short period of time. But they can also lose by getting their predictions wrong. In uncertain times, speculation can be destabilising, exaggerating price rises and falls as speculators ‘jump on the bandwagon’, seeing price changes as signifying a trend. In more stable times, speculation can even out price changes as speculators buy when prices are temporarily low and sell when they are temporarily high.
Times are uncertain at present. Confidence fluctuates over the strength of the world recovery. On days of good economic news, demand for commodities rises as people believe that a growing world economy will drive up the demand for commodities and hence their prices. On days of bad economic news, the price of commodities can fall. The point is that when undertainty is great, commodity prices can fluctuates wildly.
Articles
Commodities plunge: Blip or turning point? BBC News, Laurence Knight (6/5/11)
Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide Financial Times, Sam Jones (8/5/11)
Commodities: ‘epic rout’ or the new normal? BBC News blogs: Stephanomics, Stephanie Flanders (6/5/11)
Commodities Still a Bubble – But Prices May Continue to Rise Seeking Alpha, ChartProphet (9/5/11)
When a sell-off is good news The Economist, Buttonwood (6/5/11)
Gilt-edged argument The Economist, Buttonwood (28/4/11)
Commodities: What volatility means for your portfolio Reuters blogs: Prism Money (9/5/11)
Gold, silver rise again on debt, inflation concerns Reuters, Frank Tang (10/5/11)
Commodities After The Crash, No Way But Up The Market Oracle, Andrew McKillop (9/5/11)
Outlook 2011:Three Dominant Factors Will Impact Precious Metals in 2011 GoldSeek (9/5/11)
Energy bills set to rise sharply next winter, Centrica warn Guardian, Graeme Wearden (9/5/11)
Dollar triggered commodities ‘flash crash’, not Bin Laden The Telegraph, Garry White, and Rowena Mason (9/5/11)
The outlook for commodity prices Live Mint@The Wall Steet Journal, Manas Chakravarty (11/5/11)
Three ways to play the next commodities bubble Market Watch, Keith Fitz-Gerald (11/5/11)
Data
Commodity Prices Index Mundi
Commodities Financial Times
Commodities BBC Market Data
Questions
- Why did commodity prices fall so dramatically in early May, only to rise again rapidly afterwards?
- Why do commodity prices fluctuate more than house prices?
- What is the relevance of price elasticity of demand and supply in explaining the volatility of commodity prices?
- Under what circumstances is speculation likely to be (a) stabilising; (b) destabilising?
- To what extent are rising commodity prices (a) the cause of and (b) the effect of world inflation?
- If commodity prices go on rising every year, will inflation go on rising? Explain.
The latest mortgage approval numbers from the Bank of England are another demonstration of the fragility of the UK housing market. March 2011 saw 47,577 mortgages approved for house purchase. This is roughly in line with levels seen since the turn of the year and, more generally, over the past year. In other words, activity in the housing market might be described as ‘flat-lining’.
Over the past year, the number of monthly mortgage approvals for house purchase has averaged 47,355. This number is almost half the 10-year monthly average of 89,258. There is little momentum in either direction in the number of mortgage approvals. Given the negative influences on both the supply of credit and on households’ demand for credit, it would be a major surprise if the monthly average for mortgage approvals was to rise much above the ‘50k-mark’ any time soon.
But, why the subdued mortgage data? Well, on the supply-side, mortgage lenders are maintaining tight lending criteria. On the demand side, households remain understandably cautious. Unless circumstances dictate a need to move, households are unlikely to be rushing in any great numbers to their local estate agent.
In conclusion, it appears that the current weak activity levels have become the new norm for the UK housing market post-credit crunch. Furthermore, the current flat-lining is likely to persist.
Articles
Mortgage approvals highest in five months Financial Times, Norma Cohen (4/5/11)
UK March mortgage approvals slightly lower than forecast Reuters (4/5/11)
Mortgage lending plummets by 60% Belfast Telegraph (5/5/11)
UK mortgage approvals little changed in March, BOE says Bloomberg, Jennifer Ryan (4/5/11)
Rise in mortgage approvals does not indicate recovery, say economists Guardian, Jill Insley (27/4/11) )
Mortgage lending from UK banks still subdued BBC News (27/4/11)
Data
Mortgage approval numbers and other lending data are available from the Bank of England’s statistics publication, Monetary and Financial Statistics (Bankstats) (See Table A5.4.)
Questions
- Why do you think housing market activity might be ‘flat-lining’?
- Compile a list those variables that you think affect the demand for mortgages. Which of these do you think are particularly important at the moment?
- Compile a list of those variables that you think affect the supply of mortgages by lenders. Which of these do you think are particularly important at the moment?
- If you were advising an estate agent about future activity levels in the housing market, what would you be telling them?
- What do recent mortgage approvals numbers imply for the strength of housing demand?
Despite better economic growth in the first quarter of 2011, confidence remains low and according to Halifax, this has contributed to a decline in house prices from March to April by 1.4% to give their lowest average price since July 2009. Halifax has blamed this steady decline on a lack of confidence and the uncertain economic climate. However, despite this latest decline, Halifax have suggested that the trend may be coming to an end. Martin Ellis, from Halifax had this to say:
“Signs of a modest tightening in housing market conditions, a relatively low burden of servicing mortgage debt and an increase in the number of people in employment are all likely to be providing support for house prices, curbing the pace of decline. There are signs that house sales are stabilising, albeit at a level lower than the historical average.”
There are many factors that contribute towards house prices: the number of properties on the market, the number of buyers, the availability of mortgages and finance, interest rates and the future economic climate. How these factors change will have a crucial influence on the future house price trend. The following articles consider the causes and likely consequences of this latest housing market data.
House prices fall at fastest rate in 18 months Telegraph (9/5/11)
House prices ‘fell by 1.4% in April’ the Halifax says BBC News (9/5/11)
House prices post biggest fall in 1-1 ½ years Reuters, Fiona Shaikh (9/5/11)
House prices dive to a two-year low Independent, Nicky Burridge (9/5/11)
UK housing market remains weak Wall Street Journal, Jason Douglas (9/5/11)
U.K April house prices fall most in seven months, Halifax says Bloomberg, Svenja O’Donnell (9/5/11)
Questions
- What are the main causes behind this decline in house prices?
- The articles talk about the volatility of house prices over recent months. What is the explanation for this?
- If interest rates are increased by the MPC, is it more or less likely to cause house prices to decline further? Explain your answer.
- Why dies Martin Ellis, of Halifax, believe that the decline in house prices might reverse this year?
- How does the housing market affect the wider UK economy? Is these latest data likely to jeopardise the fragile recovery?