Tag: supply and demand

A bumper olive crop in Spain would seem to be good news for Spanish olive growers. But the effect has been a fall in the prices of olives and olive oil. With 43% of the global supply, Spain is the world’s largest olive oil producer and changes in Spanish output have a big effect on the world price.

Premium extra virgin olive oil has fallen to its lowest level (even in nominal terms) since 2002. Today the price is around $2900 (£1850) a tonne in the wholesale market; in May 2006 it peaked at nearly $5854 – double today’s price.

And while this is bad news for Spanish farmers, for farmers in countries without bumper harvests, the low prices are even harder to bear.

The problem is being exacerbated by a fall in demand in many countries currently suffering recession, such as Greece, Portugal and Italy – all big olive oil consumers. Although olive oil prices have fallen, it is still more expensive than various substitutes. Many people are thus buying these cheaper alternatives, such as sunflower oil, especially for cooking.

What is more, cheaper substitutes for olive oil are increasing in supply. Take the case of rape seed oil in the UK. As the Mail Online article, linked to below, reports:

“UK rape planting is thought to have hit an all-time high this year as British farmers take advantage of the high prices being demanded for rapeseed – base ingredient of many vegetable oils and other edible oils.

Much of the UK crop is used by the local food industry, although some analysts are predicting strong UK yields will give farmers the opportunity to export more to Europe. Because of rising export demand, oil users in the UK claim there is little to indicate the price they are paying for rapeseed oil will drop substantially in the near future.”

The market for olive oil is global. Crop yields in one part of the world, both of olives and of substitute crops, affect global prices and hence growers’ incomes worldwide.

Webcast
Debt hit countries suffer from olive oil price dip Euronews (28/5/12)

News articles
Olive oil price slides as glut hits southern Europe Gulf News, Javier Blas (29/5/12)
Farmers feel squeeze as olive oil price slips The National, Gregor Stuart Hunter (29/5/12)
Olive oil surplus adds to economic pain in Spain The Week (29/5/12)
Olive oil price fall brings further pain for Spain, Italy and Greece The Telegraph (28/5/12)
Pass notes No 3183: Olive oil Guardian (28/5/12)
More Storage Aid for Virgin Olive Oil Olive Oil Times, Julie Butler (17/5/12)
Yellow Britain from the air: Rapeseed’s relentless march across the country pictured in vivid colour as farmers cash in after price of crop’s oil soars Mail Online, Sean Poulter (29/5/12)

Data
Commodity Prices Index Mundi
Olive Oil, extra virgin Monthly Price – US Dollars per Metric Ton Index Mundi

Questions

  1. Identify the factors that have contributed to the fall in the price of olive oil. Illustrate the effects on a demand and supply diagram.
  2. Explain what is meant by the fallacy of composition and how it relates to a price taker, such as a farmer.
  3. How do the price elasticities of demand and supply of olive oil help to explain the magnitude of the price fall?
  4. What developments in other vegetable oils are affecting the olive oil market? What determines the magnitude of these effects?
  5. What actions have been taken by the EU to support the olive oil market? Is this the most appropriate policy response?
  6. Why are Middle Eastern olive producers unable to compete on cost with the major EU producing countries?

Stock markets have been plummeting. The FTSE 100 index was 6055 on 7 July 2011; by 10 August, it was 17% lower at 5007. Since then it has risen as high as 5418, but by 13 September was down to 5092. Other stock markets have fared worse. The French index fell 30% between early July and September 13, and the German DAX index fell 32% over the same period.

These falls in share prices reflect demand and supply. Investors are worried about the future of the eurozone and the health of the European economy as Greek default looks more and more likely and as the debts of various other European countries, such as Portugal, Ireland and Spain, seem increasingly unsustainable in an environment of sluggish economic growth. They are also worried about high public-sector debt in the USA and the likelihood that global recovery will peter out.

The ‘bear’ market (falling share prices) reflects increased selling of shares and a lack of demand. Not only are investors worried about the global economy, they are also speculating that share prices will fall further, thereby compounding the falls (at least until the ‘bottom’ is reached).

But why have share prices fallen quite so much? And does it matter to the general public that this is happening? The following articles seek to answer these questions.

Articles
Shares tumble on fears over Greek default Guardian, Graeme Wearden (12/9/11)
European Factors-Shares set for steep fall on Greece worries Reuters (12/9/11)
Markets set for turmoil after G-7 letdown BusinessDay (South Africa), Mariam Isa (12/9/11)
What will happen if Greece defaults? The Conversation (Australia), Sam Wylie (12/9/11)
Germany and Greece flirt with mutual assured destruction The Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (11/9/11)
Market Swings Are Becoming New Standard New York Times, Louise Story and Graham Bowley (11/9/11)
The next bull market The Bull (Australia) (12/9/11)
Prepare For Recession And Bear Market Forbes, Sy Harding (9/9/11)
Eurozone crisis: What market turmoil means for you BBC News, Kevin Peachey (8/9/11)

Stock market indices
FTSE 100: historical prices, 1984 to current day Yahoo Finance
Dow Jones Industrial Average: historical prices, 1928 to current day Yahoo Finance
Nikkei 225 (Japan): historical prices, 1984 to current day Yahoo Finance
DAX (Germany): historical prices, 1990 to current day Yahoo Finance
CAC 40 (France): historical prices, 1990 to current day Yahoo Finance
Hang Seng (Hong Kong): historical prices, 1986 to current day Yahoo Finance
SSE Composite (China: Shanghai): historical prices, 2000 to current day Yahoo Finance
BSE Sensex (India): historical prices, 1997 to current day Yahoo Finance
Stock markets BBC

Questions

  1. What factors have led to the recent falls in stock market prices? Explain just why these factors have contributed to the falls.
  2. What is likely to happen to stock market prices in the coming weeks? Why is it difficult to predict this?
  3. What is meant by the efficient capital markets hypothesis? If markets were perfectly efficient, why would it be impossible to predict future movements in stock market prices? Why may stock markets not be perfectly efficient?
  4. What factors determine stock market prices over the longer term?
  5. How are share prices influenced by speculation? Distinguish between stabilising and destabilising speculation.
  6. Explain the various ways in which members of the general public can be affected by share price falls. Are you affected in any way? Explain.
  7. If Greece defaults, what will determine the resulting effect on stock markets?
  8. To what extent does the stock market demonstrate the ‘brutal face of supply and demand’?

Are we heading for ‘perfect storm’ in commodity production and prices? Certainly the prices of many commodities have soared in recent months. These include the prices of foodstuffs such as dairy products, cooking oils and cereals, crude oil, cotton, metals and many other raw materials. The overall world commodity price index has risen by 28% in the past 12 months. The following are some examples of specific commodities:

Price rises in the 12 months to February 2011

• Wheat 62%
• Maize 59%
• Coffee 70%
• Beef 39%
• Sugar 46%
• Palm kernal oil 142%
• Soybean oil 50%
• All food price index 32%
• Crude oil 20%
• Cotton 132%
• Fine wool 55%
• Softwood timber 25%
• Iron ore 78%
• Copper 29%
• Tin 55%
• All metals index 58%
• Rubber 79%.

The problems are both short term and long term, and on both the demand and supply sides; and the effects will be at micro, macro and global levels. Some hard choices lie ahead.

The following webcast, articles and reports explore both the current position and look into the future to ask whether rising commodity prices are likely to continue or even accelerate.

The first link is to a BBC World Debate which considers the following issues: “Is scarcity of natural resources a serious challenge for developing and advanced economies? How great is the risk that scarcity might lead to conflict, both within and between nations? Might a scramble for resources lead to a retreat from globalisation and to greater protectionism?”

Webcast
World Debate: Resources BBC World Debate, Louise Arbour, President and CEO, International Crisis Group; James Cameron, Global Agenda Council on Climate Change; He Yafei, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of China to the UN; Malini Mehra, Founder and CEO, Centre for Social Markets; Kevin Rudd, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Australia (19/1/11)

Articles
Global Food Prices Continue to Rise Reuters, Steve Savage (7/3/11)
The 2011 oil shock The Economist (3/3/11)
Global Food Prices Will Probably Be Sustained at Record This Year, UN Says Bloomberg, Supunnabul Suwannaki (9/3/11)
Food prices to stay high as oil costs, weather weigh livemint.com, Apornrath Phoonphongphiphat (9/3/11)
‘Perfect storm’ threatens agriculture in developing nations Manila Bulletin, Lilybeth G. Ison (9/3/11)
IMF sees no immediate respite from high food prices Commodity Online (7/3/11)
Drought, supply, speculation drive world food prices to record high NZ Catholic (8/3/11)
The Factors Affecting Global Food Prices Seeking Alpha, David Hunkar (7/3/11)
World food prices climb to record as UN sounds alarm on further shortages FnBnews (India), Rudy Ruitenberg (9/3/11)
Food crisis: It’s a moral issue for all of us New Straits Times (Malaysia), Rueben Dudley (8/3/11)
Oil prices: Green light from the black stuff Guardian (5/3/11)
Cotton hits $2 a pound Guardian, Terry Macalister (17/2/11)
Supermarkets are raising prices faster than inflation, says UBS The Telegraph, Philip Aldrick (1/3/11)
What next for commodity prices? BBC News, Jamie Robertson (5/5/11)

Reports
FAO Cereal Supply and Demand BriefFood & Agriculture Organization, United Nations (March 2011)
Rising Prices on the Menu Finance & Development (IMF), Thomas Helbling and Shaun Roache (March 2011)

Data
Commodity prices Index Mundi
Commodities Financial Times, market data

Questions

  1. Identify the various factors that are causing rises in commodity prices. In each case state whether they are supply-side or demand-side factors.
  2. How can the price elasticity of demand and supply, the income elasticity of demand and the cross-price elasticity of demand be used to analyse the magnitude of the price rises?
  3. To what extent are rising food prices the result of (a) short-term (i.e. reversible) factors; (b) long-term trends?
  4. Why are food prices in the shops rising faster in the UK than in many other countries?
  5. To what extent is the future of food security and prices and moral issues?
  6. Why may current oil price rises become an opportunity for the future?
  7. What might be the respective roles be of government, business and consumers in responding to natural resource constraints?

Oil prices have been rising in recent weeks. At the beginning of October 2010, the spot price of Brent Crude was $80 per barrel. By December it has passed $90 per barrel. There is some way to go before it gets to the levels of mid-2008, when it peaked at over $140 per barrel (only then to fall rapidly as the world slid into recession, bottoming out at around $34 per barrel at the end of 2008).

Higher oil prices are a worry for governments around the world as they threaten higher inflation and put recovery from recession in jeopardy. You will probably have noticed the higher petrol prices at the pumps. If you spend more on petrol, you will have less to spend on other things.

So why have oil prices risen and are they likely to continue rising? The following articles examine the causes of the recent surge and look ahead to the likely response from OPEC and the path of oil prices next year.

Articles
Saudi Arabia to Check Oil Rally in 2011, Merrill’s Blanch Says Bloomberg, Juan Pablo Spinetto (13/12/10)
OPEC Cheating Most Since 2004 as Options Signal Oil Hitting $100 Next Year Bloomberg, Grant Smith and Margot Habiby (13/12/10)
Oil higher after OPEC output rollover; eyes on China Reuters, Christopher Johnson (13/12/10)
Central heating oil price shoots up by 70pc The Telegraph, Harry Wallop (10/12/10)
Speculators driving up price of oil St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Kevin G. Hall (12/12/10)
UK petrol prices reach record high BBC News (10/12/10)

Data
Brent cude oil prices (daily) U.S. Energy Information Administration (use the bar at the top to switch between daily, weekly, monthly and annual prices)
Commodity Prices Index Mundi
OPEC Basket Price and other data OPEC

Questions

  1. Explain why oil prices have been rising. Use a diagram to illustrate your answer.
  2. How can the concepts of price elasticity of demand, income elasticity of demand and price elasticity of supply help to explain the magnitude of oil price movements?
  3. Examine what is likely to happen to oil prices over the coming months. What are likely to be the most important factors in determining the direction and size of the price movements? Distinguish between demand-side and supply-side effects in your answer.
  4. What are ‘crude futures’? Explain how actions in the futures market are likely affect spot prices.
  5. To what extent can OPEC control oil prices?
  6. If crude oil prices go up by x%, would you expect petrol station prices to go up by approximately x%, or by more than or less than x%? Explain.
  7. Why have central heating oil prices risen by around 70% of over the past three months? What are the implications of your answer for the type of market structure in which central heating oil companies are operating?

This podcast is from Times Online and is an interview with Jonathan Waghorn, of Investec Global Energy Fund, who “says the price of oil is set to rise over the long term, as it becomes increasingly difficult to find. This spells bad news for motorists, but good news for investors.”

Podcast: The oil price Times Online (4/8/09)

Questions

  1. Why have oil prices fluctuated so much over the past year?
  2. What is likely to happen to the price of oil over the next few months and why?
  3. Why is the price of oil likely to rise faster than the rate of inflation over the long term?
  4. How are the price, income and cross elasticities of demand and the price elasticity of supply relevant to explaining the likely long-term trend in oil prices?
  5. If the price of crude oil goes up by x per cent, is the price of petrol at the pump likely to go up by x per cent or by more or less than x per cent? Explain your answer.