Every year thousands of entrepreneurs will have another great idea that is sure to take off and bring in millions of customers. However, most of these great ideas will turn into another business failure. But, in the case of Dropbox, it is multiple business failures that eventually created a huge success, giving hope to millions of budding entrepreneurs.
With 300 million users, the file sharing ‘Dropbox’ is certainly a success, estimated at a value of $10bn. But it didn’t happen immediately and was preceded by a few failures. So, what is the secret to success in this case? The co-founder of Dropbox, Drew Houston, said that it is all about providing something that customers want. In the case of Dropbox, customers are crucial: the more people use it, the easier it becomes for others to use it too, as it allows file sharing on a much larger scale. Perhaps here we have a case of network externalities.
With Dropbox people would tell their friends about it and collaborate. So when you go into work and work on a project with colleagues you recruit them in essence to become Dropbox users because you’re all working on a project together.
No doubt there are many other examples of businesses that have proved a success after several failed attempts. Providing customers with what they want, at the time when they need it is clearly a key ingredient, but so, it appears, is business failure. The following article from BBC News considers the rise of Dropbox.
Dropbox and the failures behind it BBC News, Richard Taylor (1/7/14)
Questions
- Customers are clearly crucial for any business to succeed. How can a new entrepreneur find out if there is a demand?
- Why was timing so important in the case of Dropbox?
- Given that customers can actually use Dropbox for free, how does this company make so much money?
- What are network externalities? Explain them in the context of Dropbox.
- Drew Houston says that ‘distribution’ is another key ingredient to success. What do you think is meant by this and how will it help create success?
Valued by private investors at more than $10 billion, the future listing on the stock market of Twitter, is an eagerly anticipated event. The necessary forms have been submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ahead of the initial public offering (IPO). Twitter will be looking to avoid the mistakes made by Facebook when they were first listed in May last year. Twitter has also announced its intentions to purchase MoPub, which is a firm specialising in mobile advert exchanges.
So, what will this listing mean for Twitter? The public will now be able to purchase shares in Twitter, in much the same way as you can buy shares in RBS or Facebook. The financial performance of Twitter will come under much greater scrutiny from its shareholders, who will be interested in short term returns and long term stability. Becoming a public limited company will attract investors and is likely to provide a much larger scope for expansion for Twitter. However, as yet no details have been released on a likely date for the flotation or on the prices we can expect.
One thing Twitter will be trying to avoid is a repeat of the problems that beset Facebook and indeed of the problems that other public listings have created for giants such as Google, Zynga and Groupon. When Facebook moved to public ownership, its share prices initially fell below its IPO and subsequently Facebook lost more than half its value. More recent success in mobile advertising has restored the fortunes of this company, but Goldman Sachs, which is handling Twitter’s transition will be looking to avoid a similar occurrence. As Sam Hamadeh from PrivCo (a firm that gathers data on private companies) said:
Twitter will learn from Facebook’s flawed playbook and do the opposite … Unlike Facebook, which waited too long to IPO (until its growth rate decelerated), Twitter will IPO at just the right inflection point: while revenue grows in triple digits.
Twitter is a rapidly growing business, but still has significant scope for expansion and this move to public ownership may be just the thing. Setting the right IPO and the right date will be crucial, as a multitude of factors can and do affect the price of shares listed on the stock market. Twitter will also need to ‘focus on doing the right stuff’ to make a success of the listing and its purchase of Mopub looks to be a step in the right direction. For now, all we can do is speculate, but if the launch is successful, then the founders of Twitter are likely to bring in hundreds of millions of dollars each.
Twitte files for IPO The Telegraph, Sophie Curtis (13/9/13)
Twitter plans stock market listing (see also) BBC News (13/9/13)
Twitter files for IPO, hopes to avoid Facebook’s mistakes Independent, Nikhil Humar and James Vincent (12/9/13)
Facebook shares close 11% below flotation price BBC News (21/5/12)
Twitter fails to answer key IPO questions Financial Times, Richard Waters and April Dembosky (13/9/13)
Twitter IPO: how much is it worth? The Guardian, Juliette Garside (13/9/13)
Twitter IPO: Tech float successes and disasters The Telegraph, Gabrielle Putter and Szu Ping Chan (13/9/13
Twitter to see ‘strong demand’ for share sale BBC News (13/9/13)
Twitter IPO: Firm in stock market launch bid Sky News (13/9/13)
Questions
- What are the characteristics of a public limited company? Are there advantages and disadvantages?
- Which factors affect (a) the supply of shares and (b) the demand for shares?
- What mistakes were made by Facebook when it made the transition to public ownership?
- How does advertising generate revenue for Twitter?
- How might you go about valuing Twitter or Facebook?
- Companies such as Twitter and Facebook have hundreds of millions of subscribers. Are there network externalities of this?
- Twitter is purchasing MoPub. What type of takeover would you classify this as?
