Author: John Sloman

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Saving the world (updated, 23/9/09)

The G20 countries meet each year. Normally their meetings are full of fine words resulting in little action. But at a summit in London on 2 April 2009, the fear of a deepening global recession focused minds and a package of measures worth over $1 trillion was agreed to stimulate trade and growth. This included $750 billion for the IMF to help economies in severe difficulties, $250 billion for financing world trade and $100 to multilateral development banks (such as the Asian Development Bank) to provide extra aid to the poorest countries.

The extra money for the IMF would include $500 billion of loans from member countries and £250 billion in new money – a form of international quantitative easing. This new money would be in the form of ‘special drawing rights’. These are denominated in dollars and are created by the IMF to be drawn on by countries in difficulties.

There was also agreement to tighten financial regulation and to resist protectionism. A ‘Financial Stability Board’ would be set up and work with the IMF to design a strengthened regulatory system for banks and other financial institutions and for financial markets and instruments.

The following articles look at the agreement and its likely effects.

‘This is the day the world came together to fight back’ Independent (2/4/09)
G20 communiqué: Point by point analysis Telegraph (2/4/09)
G20 summit – leaders’ statement. Full text of the communiqué Guardian (2/4/09)
G20: Economic summit snapshot BBC News Online (2/4/09)
G20 leaders seal $1tn global deal BBC News Online (2/4/09)
G-force The Economist (2/4/09)
World leaders declare war on risk Sydney Morning Herald (3/4/09)

Postscript (Sept 2009)
G20: What progress has been made? BBC News (23/9/09)
G20: Pledge by pledge BBC News (25/9/09)

Questions

  1. What will determine the success or failure of the G20 agreement to revive the world economy?
  2. Identify any multiplier effects from the agreed measures.
  3. Why did the French and German governments object to any further fiscal stimulus packages?
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House prices: on the rise again?

According to the Nationwide building society, house prices rose in March for the first time in 16 months. Does this mean that the decline in UK house prices is over? Or is this just a ‘blip’ in a continuing downward movement? The following articles look at the causal factors influencing house prices.
UK house prices rise first time in 16 months Times Online (2/4/09)
House prices show slight increase in March Guardian (2/4/09)
Surprise bounce to March house prices Nationwide press release (2/4/09)

Questions

  1. Identify the factors on the demand and supply side that have caused the fall in house prices since mid 2007.
  2. What have been the main reasons why house prices rose in March 2009?.
  3. How likely is it that house prices will now continue to rise?
  4. What role does speculation play in the movement of house prices? What role is speculation likely to play in the next few months?
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Britain’s widening trade gap

The November 2008 trade statistics have just been released and they show that the UK had the largest nominal trade deficit on record at £8.3 billion (up from 7.6 billion in October). This represents nearly 7 per cent of GDP, the highest since 1974.

Trade gap widens despite pound’s slump Independent (14/1/09)
UK trade deficit hits a record as weak pound fails to help Telegraph (13/1/09)
Britain’s trade deficit widens to new record Guardian (13/1/09)
UK Trade, November 2008 National Statistics (13/1/09)

Questions

  1. Why has the UK’s trade gap widened?
  2. How can the concepts of income and price elasticity of demand be used in analysing the causes of the widening deficit?
  3. Explain how these elasticity values are likely to differ in the short and long run.
  4. Explain the factors that will determine whether the trade gap will widen or narrow over the coming months.