The UK and the EU: all change, or is it?

At 23:00 on 31 December 2020, the UK withdrew from the European single market. This ended the transition period which followed the UK’s departure from the EU on 31 January 2020. But, with the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (‘the deal’) signed on 30 December, it was agreed that there would be no tariffs or quotas on trade in goods between the UK and the EU.

So what are the new economic relations between the EU and the UK and how will they impact on the UK economy? What new restrictions are there on trade in goods and on the movement of labour and capital? How is trade in services, including financial services, affected? What new agreements, such as on fishing, will replace previous agreements?

What will happen to trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland? What will happen to trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland?

What will happen to regulations over standards of traded products and their production? Will the UK government be able to provide subsidies or other types of support for goods or services exported to the EU? How will disputes about standards and support to companies be resolved?

How will trade with non-EU countries change? If the EU has trade agreements with such countries, do these agreements now apply to trade between the UK and such countries? How free is the UK now to negotiate new trade agreements with non-EU countries? How will the UK’s negotiating strength be affected by its withdrawal from the EU?

Rather than listing the changes here, follow the links below to the articles and assess the nature of the changes and then attempt the questions. The articles represent a balance of views.

What is clear is that these are all big issues and are likely to have a significant impact on the UK economy. Most economists argue that the net effect will be negative on trade and economic growth, but there is huge uncertainty about the magnitude of the effects. Much will depend on how arrangements between the UK and the EU develop over the coming months and years.

Articles

• Brexit deal explained: What will be the impact of UK’s agreement with EU?

Sky News, Ed Conway (24/12/20)

• Brexit deal: What is in it?

BBC News, Chris Morris (28/12/20)

• Brexit: What are the key points of the deal?

BBC News, Tom Edgington (30/12/20)

• Brexit trade deal explained: the key parts of the landmark agreement

Financial Times (25/12/20)

• The key details of the Brexit deal summarised, from trade to fishing

The Telegraph, James Crisp and Gordon Rayner (3/1/21)

• Committees, visas and climate change: Brexit experts’ verdicts on the deal details

The Guardian, Lisa O’Carroll (28/12/20)

• The left must stop mourning Brexit – and start seeing its huge potential

The Guardian, Larry Elliott (31/12/20)

• The Guardian view on Britain out of the EU: a treasure island for rentiers

The Guardian, Editorial (27/12/20)

• Brexit Is Finally Done, but It Already Seems Out of Date

New York Times, Mark Landler (30/12/20)

• Towards a modern UK-EU trade relationship

Best for Britain, David Henig (28/12/20)

• Brexit Is a New World Businesses Still Need to Figure Out

Bloomberg, Deirdre Hipwell, Craig Trudell, and Dara Doyle (1/1/21)

UK and EU documents

• Agreements reached between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the European Union

Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street (31/12/20)

• The UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement: summary and implementation

House of Commons Library, Research Briefing, Stefano Fella et al (30/12/20)

• Trade and Cooperation Agreement between the European Union and The European Atomic Energy Community, of the one part, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, of the other part

European Commission (31/12/20)

• Questions & Answers: EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement

European Commission (24/12/20)

• EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement: A new relationship, with big changes – Brochure

European Commission (24/12/20)

• EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement: A new relationship, with big changes – Overview of consequences and benefits

European Commission (24/12/20)

Questions