According to GDP figures released on 15 August, China overtook Japan in the second quarter of 2010 to become the world’s second largest economy. This raises two questions: just what do the GDP figures mean and why has this happened?

The GDP figures are total figures measured in US dollars at current exchange rates. According to these nominal figures, Japan’s GDP was $1.286 trillion in the second quarter of 2010; China’s was $1.335 trillion. This follows several years when Chinese growth rates have massively exceeded Japanese ones.

As far as explanations are concerned, economists look to a number of different factors, including investment policies, relative exchange rates, confidence, deflation in Japan and the scope for catching up in China.

The following podcasts and webcasts look at these questions, as do the articles.

Podcasts and webcasts
China eyes Japan’s slowing GDP growth BBC News, Roland Buerk (16/8/10)
Japan’s economic strategy ‘not happening’ BBC Today Programme Interview with Dr Seijiro Takeshita of Mizuho International banks (16/8/10)
China’s growth rate slows to 10.3% as lending tightens BBC News, Chris Hogg (15/7/10)
China exports jump in May BBC News, Chris Hogg (10/6/10)
China Overtakes Japan in 2Q As No. 2 Economy Associated Press on YouTube (16/8/10)
China’s economy takes over Japan’s AsianCorrespondent on YouTube (16/8/10)

Articles
China overtakes Japan to become world’s second-biggest economy Telegraph, Roland Gribben (17/8/10)
Chinese economy eclipses Japan’s Financial Times, Lindsay Whipp and Jamil Anderlini (16/8/10)
Decoding China’s modesty Financial Times blogs, Jamil Anderlini (17/8/10)
China ‘overtakes Japan in economic prowess’ asiaone news (17/8/10)
China overtakes Japan to become second largest economy in world Irish Times, Clifford Coonan (17/8/10)
China Passes Japan As Second-Largest Economy Huffington Post, Joe McDonald (16/8/10)

Data
World Economic Outlook July 2010 Update IMF (7/7/10)
China Economic Statistics and Indicators EconomyWatch
Japan Economic Statistics and Indicators EconomyWatch

Throughout 2009/10, a new millionaire was created in Brazil every 10 minutes – not bad for a developing country! Despite the global recession, Brazil has managed growth of almost 5% and is set to overtake both the UK and France to become the world’s 5th largest economy. Brazil will hold the next World Cup and the Olympic games after London, bringing it further recognition as a global power. It has the third largest aircraft manufacturing industry in the world and is even doing its bit to tackle climate change, with 50% of its cars running on bio-fuels. It exports more meat than any other country and is looking to become an energy power. With falling unemployment, a buoyant economy, growing confidence, fantastic beaches and 6 millionaires created every hour, Brazil looks like the perfect place to live.

However, that is just one side of the story. Brazil is still a country with deep poverty – approximately 60 million people. The slums, or favelas, are home to 1 million people in Rio alone, where unemployment is high and drug wars common. There has been a concerted effort to reduce the drug trafficking business, but this has only created more unemployment. There is little sanitation, poor electricity and minimal chance of escape. Neighbourhoods need rebuilding, and despite high growth and arguably the most popular president in the world (Lula da Silva), there are calls for political, social, taxation and labour market reforms. This cycle of poverty and the equality gap needs addressing before the Brazilian economy can really be considered a global power.

Webcasts and podcasts
Will Brazil’s economy keep growing? BBC News, Matt Frei (27/5/10)
Brazil’s bid to be ‘world’s breadbasket’ BBC World News America, Paulo Cabral (26/5/10)
Tackling Brazil’s poverty BBC World News America, Gary Duffy (28/5/10)
Brazil’s development spurs economic quality hopes BBC World News America, Matt Frei (27/5/10)
Brazil’s air industry takes off BBC World News America, Paolo Cabral (24/5/10)
‘Our growth quality is better than China’ BBC World News America, Marcelo Neri (25/5/10)
Brazilian economy poised to overtake UK’s BBC News Today, Matt Frei (27/5/10)

Data
Economic data Banco Central do Brasil
Brazil Economy EconomyWatch
Brazil CIA World Factbook
Brazil Geognos
Brazil data World Bank

The following link is to a video charting the growth of China and the UK over the past 200 years and projecting forward to 2014. The video is from Gapminder, a site that allows you to compare countries’ performance in terms of a large range of economic and social indicators.

The introduction to this video states, “200 years ago, United Kingdom was a leading nation of the world – both in regard to health and economy. In this video, Hans Rosling details UK’s 200-year journey, to present time, and also shows that China, in the coming five years, will narrow the gap to UK faster than ever.”

Crisis narrows China–UK gap Hans Rosling, Gapminder (2/6/09)

“10 million children die each year from preventable, poverty-related diseases; there are 1.4 billion people in the world surviving on less than $1.25 a day; and more than 70 million primary school-age children are out of school”. The Millennium Development Goals were targets set by the developed world to try to improve this situation by 2015. However, although world leaders met in September 2008 to renew their commitments to meeting these goals, the financial crisis has drawn attention away from these issues and focused most governments on narrower, domestic goals.

Women are key to fighting poverty BBC News Online (23/9/08)
A stagnant promise Guardian (24/9/08)

A recent report from the World Bank has suggested that developing countries need to grow significantly if they are to avoid high levels of poverty. The report suggested that without rapid and sustained growth up to 4 billion people could be living in abject poverty by 2050.

‘Choose growth or accept poverty for billions’ Guardian (22/5/08)
The Doha dilemma The Economist (29/5/08)

Global food prices have been rising significantly in recent months and this has led to food riots in a number of countries, rationing being reintroduced in Pakistan and price controls being introduced in Russia. What has caused these rapidly rising prices and to what extent will they slow the rate of economic development in the Third World?

UK farmers forced to ride income rollercoaster Guardian (26/2/08)
They’re going to need a lot more money to meet the same needs Guardian podcast (26/2/08)
Feed the world? We are fighting a losing battle, UN admits Guardian (26/2/08)
Record rise in fuel prices fuels inflation Guardian (12/2/08)
India’s farmers struggling to keep food on the table Times Online (29/2/08)

Microfinance is a topic we have addressed before in these news items and we make no apologies for returning to it again. The articles linked to below include an interview in the Guardian with Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel prize-winning founder of the Grameen Bank which is credited with lifting millions out of poverty with small loans – microfinance. There is also a podcast from Mervyn Davies the Chairman of Standard Chartered Bank Plc.

Microfinance and financial inclusion Times Online podcast (18/0/07)
Microfinance and financial inclusion (transcript for podcast) Times Online (18/0/07)
What’s the big idea? Guardian (16/2/08)

Research has indicated that communications technology can be a significant driver of GDP growth. In Africa it is possible that mobile phones and networks can provide opportunities for economic development and members of the GSM Association are proposing to invest £25bn in sub-Saharan Africa in the next five years.

Upwardly mobile Africa: key to development lies in their hands Guardian (29/11/07)

In many parts of the world poor water and sanitation are one of the biggest killers. The article below looks at the situation in the shanty towns of Dhaka in Bangladesh.

Where death by water is part of daily life Guardian (26/11/07)

Bolivia may have the second largest gas reserves in Latin America but it also has an acute shortage of diesel. People have blamed a variety of causes: smugglers, the government and nationalisation. In truth, the cause may be a combination of all these factors, but whatever the cause, the diesel shortage is acting as a significant constraint on further economic development and is an ongoing headache for the President Evo Morales.

Fuelling Bolivia’s crisis BBC News Online (8/11/07)