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Posts Tagged ‘construction’

The impact of the housing market

The housing market has been very volatile over the past year or so. House prices crashed, but then appeared to stabilise. Since then, however, different sources have given very different opinions and predictions about future movements. According to Nationwide Building Society, house prices have increased by an average of £53 a day during September, but others suggest that they remain stable and that they may fall again in 2010.

Not only are house prices important to those buying and selling, but the state of the housing market is also crucial for the recovery of the economy. For example, the construction industry has suffered over the past year and, as of the 2nd October 2009, unemployment in this sector stood at 17.1%. As more and more workers lose their jobs, their disposable income falls and hence demand in the economy is affected. With the possibility of an election debate between the party leaders, many will be waiting to see what their strategies are to revitalise a struggling economy.

House prices rise an average of £53 a day’ Daily Record, Clinton Manning (3/10/09)
Mortgage approvals dip in August BBC News (29/9/09)
Construction contracts at slowest pace for seven months Construction News, Nick Whitten (5/5/09)
House sales ‘stalled’ in August BBC News (22/9/09)
Housing market needs ‘feel-good’ factor to recover City Wire, Nicholas Paler (26/6/09)
Double whammy for first-timers as prices stabilise and loans dry up Scotsman, Jeff Salway (3/10/09)
Head-to-head view on house prices BBC News, Kevin Peachey (27/8/09)
UK construction industry still contracting, says Cips Guardian, Kathryn Hopkins (2/10/09)
House prices see ‘slight decline’ BBC News (28/9/09)
House prices ‘back to 2008 level’ BBC News (2/10/09)
Construction unemployment rises to 17.1% HomeTown Sources (2/10/09)
House prices up - but so are insolvencies Management Today (2/10/09)
Financial shadow cast by city apartments BBC News (8/10/09)

For house price data see:
Nationwide House Prices
Halifax House Price Index from the Lloyds Banking Group
Housing Market and House Prices from the Department of Communites and Local Government

Questions

  1. Why are recent movements in the housing market going to be a problem for first-time buyers?
  2. The ‘Stamp duty holiday’ will soon come to an end. What do you think will be the impact on the demand for and supply of houses and hence equilibrium prices over the next 6 months?
  3. One of the reasons why house prices have stabilised is a lack of supply. How does this affect equilibrium prices?
  4. Why is the economy so affected by changes in house prices? Think about what happens when construction workers lose their jobs and how this affects aggregate demand. Then consider how the macroeconomy will be affected.
  5. When demand for houses increases, why do prices increase so rapidly? Consider elasticity.

The Housing Market: Up or down?

The global recession can be traced back to the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market in America and so it’s hardly surprising that one of the biggest sufferers of this global crisis has been the housing market. House prices in the UK had, for some months, been in apparent free-fall, but they now appear to have stabilised. Some estate agents report prices beginning to increase, but others say they’re still falling.

Whilst lower prices should be an encouraging sign for first-time-buyers, there is another obstacle in their way. Mortgage lenders have been requiring large deposits and, unsurprisingly, have become more vigilant about whom they lend to and how much. Read the articles below that look at the crisis in the housing market and consider the impact this has had on the wider economy.

Experts far more upbeat about UK house market The Herald, Ian McConnell (26/6/09)
Gloomy CIPS data shows further woes for construction firms Construction News, Nick Whitten (2/10/08)
Construction contracts at slowest pace for seven months Construction News, Nick Whitten (5/5/09)
House prices decline again in May BBC News (26/6/09)
Mortgage lending falls back again BBC News (18/6/09)
More fixed-rate mortgages go up BBC News (16/6/09)
Housing market needs ‘feel-good factor’ to recover CityWire, Nicholas Paler (26/6/09)
Housing market set for recovery Exec Digital, Ben Lobel (26/6/09)
Home-ownership ‘aspirations hit’ BBC News (15/6/09)
House prices fall 1.7 percent in April Exec Digital (6/5/09)
Spring bounce in mortgage lending BBC News (11/6/09)
Is the first rung on the property ladder broken? BBC News, Kevin Peachey (27/4/09)
Lack of affordability may slow housing sector recovery RLA News Service (25/6/09)

See the following two sites for house price data in the UK:
Halifax House Price data from the Lloyds Banking Group
Nationwide House Price data

Questions

  1. Why has the collapse of the housing market had much wider repercussions on the UK economy? Consider the impact on construction, solicitors, surveyors.
  2. Have any groups benefited from falling house prices?
  3. How has the UK’s monetary policy in particular helped to stimulate the UK housing market? Has it been successful?
  4. Why are lenders so reluctant to lend? Is this a direct result of the sub-prime crisis in America?
  5. What is the meaning of ‘negative equity’? How does being in a situation of negative equity affect people’s behaviour?

Building - from boom to bust!

One of the industries always hard hit by any economic downturn is the building and construction industry. The three articles below look at different aspects of the construction downturn. The building industry in Spain (article 1) has been particularly hard hit, perhaps because of the previous scale of the boom. When there is a recession, different industries are always hit in different ways, depending on the nature of the demand they face. Construction and building can be very badly affected as much of the expenditure on them is ‘investment’ expenditure and this will often be delayed in times of economic downturn.

Building boom reduced to ruins by collapse of Spain’s economic miracle Guardian (19/1/09)
Housing starts lowest since 1924 as construction bears brunt of recession Guardian (15/12/08)
UK construction activity slumps to record low Times Online (5/1/09)

Questions

  1. Write a short paragraph explaining the current state of the construction industry in the UK.
  2. Explain the accelerator theory.
  3. Discuss the extent to which the accelerator theory might help to explain the current state of the construction industry in the UK and Spain.